MLB Pick: Under 8.5 (-122) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)
Friday’s schedule is a full slate of 15 Major League Baseball games, including an afternoon matchup at Wrigley Field.
We’ve had a strong record of 12-6 in our last 18 plays, and we’re back with our three best bets for Friday. Our third and final selection comes in the Twin Cities, where our model likes another total with the Red Sox visiting the Twins, according to the latest MLB odds available at the best sportsbooks.
Don’t miss out on more MLB expert picks:
Boston Red Sox vs. Minnesota Twins
Friday, May 03, 2024 – 08:10 PM ET at Target Field
We see a nice, under-the-radar pitching duel in Minneapolis on Friday, and are thus supporting the Under when Tanner Houck and the Red Sox visit Chris Paddack and the Twins.
Second in Pitching WAR
Houck is somewhat surprisingly second in the majors among qualifying pitchers in WAR at 1.4, which is what happens when you rank seventh in ERA at 1.60 and fourth in xFIP at 2.58. While it is obvious that the ERA will rise, Tanner does have nice metrics to suggest that the xFIP may not be fraudulent.
Coming off a disappointing 2023 after showing nice promise in his first three Major League seasons, Houck appears to be putting things together at age 27. He has an excellent K/BB ratio (9.38/1.14 per nine innings) and groundball rate (54.7%), a combination that will win many baseball games. He is also throwing a heavy 93.9 MPH sinker that has helped generate a 12.9% swinging strike rate.
It also helps to be facing a Twins offense that strikes out at the sixth-highest rate in baseball vs. right-handers at 24.9%.
Home Sweet Home
Now, Paddack admittedly enters this game with an ugly 5.88 ERA. However, his xFIP is better at 4.20 and his average velocity of 94.1 MPH is back on par with his career average of 94.3 MPH after seeing some slippage in recent years. And he apparently loves pitching in Target Field.
Chris has been a better pitcher at home than on the road since joining the Twins in 2022, and this early season has been no exception. Paddack has a 1.54 ERA and 2.39 xFIP in two home starts, compared to a 9.42 ERA and 5.67 xFIP in three road starts so far. And if he is in need of relief, the Minnesota bullpen has been excellent ranking fifth in the majors in xFIP (3.40), fourth in ERA (2.68) and second in strikeout rate (10.78/9).
The Pick
So, we see pitching ruling the night for both teams here and are therefore betting the Under on Friday.
Predicted Score: Red Sox 4 – Twins 2
MLB Pick: Under 8.5 (-122) at Bookmaker
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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