MLB Pick: Red Sox ML (-105) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
The betting value at the top sportsbooks on Tuesday’s MLB odds board is with the Boston Red Sox – and definitely not with the Toronto Blue Jays.
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Boston Red Sox vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Tuesday, June 18, 2024 – 07:07 PM ET at Rogers Centre
Making baseball picks isn’t all that difficult, right? Consider Tuesday’s game between the Boston Red Sox and Toronto Blue Jays; the Red Sox are 37-35 at press time for a profit of 0.79 betting units, and the Blue Jays are 6.96 units in the hole at 35-36. Surely this is a no-brainer for Boston.
Well, yes and no. Let’s dig deep, peel back the layers, and see if we can uncover the real reason the Sox are the right call at -105 on the MLB odds board at Heritage.
Why Should I Bet on the Red Sox?
Because they’re better than advertised, after a hot start and an extended cooling-off period, Boston finds themselves in third place in the American League East, well behind the 50-24 New York Yankees and 47-24 Baltimore Orioles. Hardly anyone outside of Boston is paying attention anymore.
But they should. The Red Sox “should” be a 40-32 team, judging by their plus-38 run differential. They also rank eighth overall in the majors at plus-0.6 on the Simple Rating System at Baseball Reference. It’s a Wild Card team waiting to happen.
Having said that, much of Boston’s power comes from their pitching staff, and they’ll be near the back of the rotation Tuesday when Tanner Houck takes the mound. Except Houck has outperformed just about everyone, posting a 2.87 xFIP to go along with his pristine 2.08 ERA.
We’d obviously prefer to see Houck’s xFIP be lower than his ERA for betting purposes. But the Red Sox are still 9-5 in his 14 starts (Under 8-5-1) of yeoman service for 1.67 units in profit. Maybe we can get some of that cheddar before the public catches on.
Why Should I Bet Against the Blue Jays?
Because they’re broken, for whatever reason – perhaps partly due to the two years of ballpark renovations that have changed the dimensions of the former SkyDome – the Jays have stopped hitting. Their minus-31 run differential translates to a 32-39 expected win record.
The bigger question is whether it’s too late to take advantage. Toronto has reshaped its lineup somewhat, cutting ties with Cavan Biggio (.614 OPS) and Daniel Vogelbach (.578 OPS) while calling up Spencer Horwitz (.790 OPS in eight games) from AAA-Buffalo.
Horwitz is one of Toronto’s deeper prospects, ranking No. 19 in the organization according to FanGraphs, but he’s mashed the ball at just every stop on the minors. The Jays need some of that desperately right now.
Also re-joining the parent club is fellow utility glue-guy Addison Barger (.352 OPS), a much more highly prized prospect at No. 4 in Toronto’s farm system. Barger’s unusual swing has yet to generate the same power in the bigs as it did in Buffalo – although he did hit well in each of his two games since getting the call-up, both victories for the Jays.
Should I Fade Chris Bassitt?
In this matchup, yes – but temper that bet size somewhat. Although we’re big fans of Bassitt here at the ranch, his 4.08 xFIP doesn’t line up with his 3.56 ERA, and the Jays are 6-8 (Under 8-5-1) in his 14 starts for a loss of 3.21 units.
True, Chris Bassitt has held current Boston batters to a combined .500 OPS, but that’s in a small sample size of 32 at-bats that only covers six players. And one of those players happens to be Rafael Devers (.924 OPS on the season), who’s 3-for-8 with two home runs and a 1.625 OPS. Bet accordingly, and may the sphere be with you.
MLB Pick: Red Sox ML (-105) at Heritage Sports
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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