MLB Pick: Red Sox ML (-101) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
We have a typical 15-game slate of Major League Baseball betting matchups for Sunday. We are 6-3 in our last nine plays, and we are back with the three plays we feel have the most betting value at the current MLB odds.
Before heading to the top-rated sportsbooks, you should know that these value-bets are based mostly on our proprietary model. Our model likes a side in Sunday Night Baseball this week with the Red Sox visiting the Dodgers.
For more of our betting analysis, check out:
Boston Red Sox vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Sunday, July 21, 2024 – 07:10 PM ET at Dodger Stadium
We have one of our favorite kinds of pitching matchups in Sunday Night Baseball this week with opposite regressions expected from the starting pitchers. Therefore, we are backing the unlucky Kutter Crawford and the Red Sox when they visit an overachieving James Paxton and the Dodgers.
13th in ERA
The Red Sox have forged into a wild card position at 53-44 after a slow start to the season. Crawford is finally starting to record wins after pitching well all season. Yes, he still has a losing record at 6-7. However, that comes with an ERA of 3.00 that ranks 13th best in the Major Leagues. And with the Red Sox heating up, Crawford is finally starting to get rewarded. He is 3-0 in his last three starts.
Appropriately enough for someone named Kutter, his highest-rated pitch on Stuff+ is indeed his cutter at 114. He also has an excellent slider rated 112 and a fastball rated 108. That “stuff” has led to a good strikeout rate of 8.84/9, a swinging strike rate of 12.4% and a hard/soft contact ratio of 17.3% / 28.8%. The wins should continue to accumulate if Crawford maintains that form.
Worst xFIP
And then there is Paxton, who has been the antithesis of Crawford. You see, the former is 7-2, although his ERA is finally on the rise at 4.38. Still, that ERA still has a way to go to catch up to his 5.36 xFIP, which is the worst in the majors among pitchers with at least 80 innings pitched.
Now 35 years old, James has seen a huge dip in velocity to 93.2 MPH this season from 95.2 just last year. That has led to career worsts in both strikeout rate (6.08/9) and swinging strike rate (8.4%), and he has simultaneously seen his walk rate balloon to 4.70/9. Add in a weak soft/hard contact ratio of 14.0% / 33.7% and we expect James’s ERA to continue to rise.
The Pick
So, the bottom line is the records of both pitchers tonight are undeserved for opposite reasons. Crawford deserves better and Paxton has been extremely lucky. We are betting on a correcting Red Sox win in Sunday Night Baseball.
Predicted Score: Red Sox 6 – Dodgers 3
MLB Pick: Red Sox ML (-101) at Bovada
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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