MLB Pick: Red Sox ML (+113) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
We have a typical full slate of Major League Baseball betting matchups for Sunday with 14 afternoon games plus Sunday Night Baseball. Before heading to our top-rated sportsbooks, let’s take a closer look at a play we feel has the most betting value at the current MLB odds.
These best bets are based mostly on our proprietary model. Our model favors a side in Sunday Night Baseball this week with the Red Sox visiting the Yankees.
For more of our betting analysis, check out:
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees
Sunday, July 07, 2024 – 07:10 PM ET at Yankee Stadium
We are predicting an upset in Sunday Night Baseball this week. We are supporting Kutter Crawford and the Red Sox visiting an overachieving Luis Gil and the Yankees.
Deserves Better
We were high on Crawford entering this season, so his 4-7 record thus far is a disappointment. However, as oftentimes happens, the record is mostly not his fault given his 3.42 ERA. He has now allowed three earned runs or less in five consecutive starts. Meanwhile, he’s been managing just a 2-2 record due to a lack of run support. He did get the win last time out, though allowing one run on only three hits with seven strikeouts and no walks in six innings.
Kutter has a good K/BB ratio of 9.38/2.70 per nine innings with a good swinging-strike rate of 12.4%. He also had a good soft/hard contact ratio of 16.8% / 27.5%. His hard contact is down over 4% from 31.9% last year. In short, the wins should begin to come with better run support. The good news is that the Boston offense has been better on the road.
Descending to Earth
There was some Rookie of the Year hype surrounding Gil a few weeks ago when his ERA was in the 2.00s, but we correctly forecasted his regression with his xFIP over two runs higher at the time. And the regression has been real with 16 earned runs allowed in his last three starts covering only 9.2 innings.
And the good news is there is still room for more regression, as the ERA still stands at 3.41 against a 4.21 xFIP. Gil has continued the control issues that have plagued his entire professional career including the minors, as his walk rate is currently a hideous 4.82/9. He has been extremely lucky with a .216 BABIP allowed, but that luck has begun to run out in the last three outings.
He is facing a Boston offense with a 111 wRC+ on the road compared to just 93 at home.
The Pick
Thus, we expect Crawford to get better run support tonight with the Red Sox offense in its better split and facing a pitcher in regression. We are betting Boston to pull the upset Sunday night in the Bronx.
Predicted Score: Red Sox 5 – Yankees 4
MLB Pick: Red Sox ML (+113) at Heritage Sports
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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