Reds vs. Marlins MLB Best Bet: Hey Abbott, Miami To Pull Off Upset
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LT Profits
- August 7, 2024
MLB Pick: Marlins ML (+127) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
We are 19-11 in our last 30 plays entering Wednesday’s huge 17-game card of MLB betting matchups after another winning 2-1 Sunday, with MLB odds in our favor.
Today’s top three MLB bets are available on top sportsbooks, including a value pick for the Reds vs. Marlins matchup on Wednesday in South Beach.
For in-depth coverage, expert analysis, and all the excitement of this year’s most thrilling baseball showdown, check out our MLB World Series betting page.
For additional betting insights, check out:
Cincinnati Reds vs. Miami Marlins
Wednesday, August 07, 2024 – 06:40 PM ET at loanDepot Park
ERA Does Not Make Sense
Andrew Abbott of the Reds has been greatly overachieving relative to his underlying metrics. Thus, we are backing Valente Bellozo and the Marlins to pull off the upset at home on Wednesday.
Abbott enters this contest at 9-8 with a good 3.41 ERA, but to say his peripherals do not support his ERA looks like an understatement. As is usually the case, those metrics more closely support his xFIP of 4.96 that is more than 1.5 runs higher than his ERA. In fact, Abbott owns the worst xFIP in the Major Leagues among qualified starting pitchers!
Andrew Abbott has a weak K/BB ratio of 7.20/3.41 per nine innings, a low swinging strike rate of 9.0%, and a poor groundball rate of 32.6%. So how is his ERA even possible? Well, it looks like that is entirely due to luck. His strand rate of 84.6% would be extreme for any pitcher, let alone one like Abbott who does not have a high strikeout rate. Furthermore, he has escaped all his air contact with a low .256 BABIP.
We simply do not see Abbott maintaining his current ERA once the Luck stats normalize.
Better xFIP at Nice Price
Now, Valente Bellozo may not have eye-popping numbers after his first three Major League starts at 0-1 with a 4.20 ERA and 4.08 xFIP. However, that xFIP is considerably lower than Abbott’s, which is always a nice trait for an underdog. Moreover, Bellozo has some nice peripherals that suggest nice potential for the rookie.
Most noteworthy for Valente is his excellent K/BB ratio early on of 9.00/1.80 per nine innings. That matches up well with a Cincinnati lineup that has the sixth-highest offensive strikeout rate in the majors at 24.4%. Also, Bellozo has pitched well in two of his three starts allowing zero and two runs respectively, with the two runs allowed coming last time out against a good Braves lineup.
The Pick
So, the bottom line here is that Abbott’s ERA is fraudulent based on his Saber stats while Bellozo shows some promise as a rookie. This has us betting on the Marlins as home underdogs in Miami.
Predicted Score: Marlins 5 – Reds 4
MLB Pick: Marlins ML (+127) at Heritage Sports
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
