Reds vs. Pirates MLB Best Bet: Runs Not Plentiful in Pittsburgh
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LT Profits
- August 25, 2024
MLB Pick: Under 8.5 (+107) at Heritage Sports
We are 4-2 in our last six plays entering Sunday’s 15-game card of MLB betting matchups including a +125 winner Friday. We are back today with the three plays we feel have the most betting value at the current MLB odds, courtesy of the top sportsbooks.
These value bets are based mostly on our proprietary model, which points to a total in the Steel City in the Reds vs. Pirates matchup at 1:35pm ET Sunday.
Don’t forget to check out our other picks for Sunday:
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Sunday, August 25, 2024 – 01:35 PM ET at PNC Park
This is a matchup of two offenses in the bottom third of the league and two starters that have been solid so far. So, we are backing the Under when Nick Martinez and the Reds visit Luis Ortiz and the Pirates.
Facing Second Worst Offense
Martinez has already made 35 appearances this season including 26 relief outings, but he was quite solid as a starter before probably his worst start of the year last time out. He allowed six runs in 4.1 innings on Wednesday, but that still leaves him with a 3.64 ERA for the season that belies his 6-6 record.
While Nick will not blow anyone away with his 92.6 MPH fastball, he has a nice arsenal with four pitches he has thrown over 10% of the time plus an occasional slider for a fifth pitch. And three of his non-fastball pitches are rated above 100 on Stuff+, headed by his change-up at 115 and curveball at 112. Those excellent off-speed pitches have led to an outstanding soft/hard contact ratio of 21.0% / 23.5%.
We like his chances of bouncing back against a Pittsburgh offense ranked 29th out of 30 teams in wRC+ against right-handers at 82, ahead of only the lowly White Sox.
Been Good in All Roles
Ortiz has pitched in three different roles for the Pirates, serving as a starter, reliever and bulk pitcher following an opener, and he has performed well in all roles. He is making his 10th start, coming in with a winning record at 5-4 with a 3.56 ERA. He has allowed three earned runs or less in six of his nine starts and four runs in two others, only getting really lit up once as a starter.
Luis was excellent in his only start against the Reds allowing one run on four hits in six innings with seven strikeouts and not a single walk. Furthermore, that start came in Cincinnati in hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park. Ortiz has nice velocity on his fastball at 95.8 MPH, but his best pitch is a wipeout slider graded 121 on Stuff+.
He is facing a disappointing Cincinnati offense ranked 25th in wRC+ against right-handers at 91.
What we have here is two offenses that have struggled against right-handed pitching and two pitchers capable of making that trend continue. This has us betting the Under in Pittsburgh.
Predicted Score: Reds 4 – Pirates 2
MLB Pick: Under 8.5 (+107) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
