MLB Pick: Yankees ML (-173) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
We have a full 15-game slate of Major League Baseball betting matchups for Wednesday with all MLB teams in action. We are 13-6-1 in our last 20 plays, and we are back with the three plays we feel have the most betting value at the current MLB odds available at top sportsbooks.
These value-bets are based mostly on our proprietary model, which points to a side in Wednesday’s Reds vs. Yankees matchup.
If you’re looking for additional MLB value picks:
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees
Wednesday, July 03, 2024 – 07:05 PM ET at Yankee Stadium
We are not believers in Andrew Abbott of the Reds, and while Carlos Rodón has been shaky for the Yankees, he has more upside. Add in the return of Juan Soto and the Yankees get our call Wednesday.
Smoke and Mirrors
Abbott enters at 7-6 despite a 3.41 ERA, and while some may say he has been unlucky, just the opposite is true. You see, he has been literally one of the luckiest pitchers in baseball based on the Luck stats, ranking fifth among qualifying pitchers in lowest BABIP allowed at .238 and third in highest strand rate at 85.5%.
Andrew has a rather weak K/BB ratio of 7.23/3.21 per nine innings and a low groundball rate of 33.5%. The batter is getting good looks with his low swinging-strike rate of 8.0%, and just about his only frontline stat that is not fluky is his disturbing home runs allowed ratio of 1.61/9.
Therefore, it is the ERA that seems undeserved, and he now faces a powerful Yankee lineup bolstered by the return of Juan Soto after missing a few games with a hand injury.
Some Good Signs
Granted, Rodon has been a mess since signing a big contract with the Yankees before last season due to multiple injuries. He had a hideous first campaign for the Bombers with a 6.85 ERA and 5.30 xFIP while pitching through pain. And while he does not have eye-popping numbers this year, at least they are much better with a 4.42 ERA and 4.35 xFIP.
But while the results have still not been great, there are underlying metrics pointing to a return to peak form. His velocity has been getting better every start, reaching 95.6 MPH last time out in a start where he generated a 14.0% swinging-strike rate, leading to eight strikeouts and just one walk in five innings. That leaves him with a commendable K/BB ratio for the season of 8.84/2.50 per nine innings with a good 12.8% swinging-strike rate.
He is facing a disappointing Cincinnati lineup that has been slightly below average against left-handers with a wRC+ of 98.
The Pick
We feel Rodon is fully capable of improving as the season goes on while we foresee huge negative regression for Abbott. Add in the much better offense and bet the Yankees even as big favorites at home in this spot.
Predicted Score: Yankees 7 – Reds 3
MLB Pick: Yankees ML (-173) at Heritage Sports
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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