Top NCAAF Pick: LSU -10 (-110) via BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
The LSU Tigers won’t have their Heisman quarterback for the ReliaQuest Bowl. But with Garrett Nussmeier under center, LSU might not miss a beat after all. Check out our NCAAF odds for the first 2024 game in the college football season and let the new year begin at the main offshore sportsbooks.
Wisconsin Badgers vs. LSU Tigers
Monday, January 01, 2024 – 12:00 PM ET at Raymond James Stadium
Quarterback Transition
The LSU Tigers won’t have the Heisman Award winner under center. Jayden Daniels has decided to opt out in preparation for the NFL Draft, giving Garrett Nussmeier an opportunity in the ReliaQuest Bowl on January 1.
Meanwhile, it looks like wide receivers Brian Thomas and Malik Nabers will start this game. It’s likely they’re going to start this matchup to break records and then sit for the remainder of the game. But that isn’t confirmed. It’s just a rumor that makes the most sense.
Nussmeier is a sophomore who will likely be the LSU quarterback next season. He’s been with the team for three seasons and has great chemistry with everyone. In his college football career, he’s already managed to earn 1,325 yards passing, and he’s barely played. He has never even earned a start for the Tigers and has eight passing touchdowns.
The Tigers won’t have many significant players transferring. That’s ultimately why they’re expected to win this game big.
On the other hand, Wisconsin lost three significant players to opt-outs, including RB Braelon Allen. The Badgers also won’t have six key players who left for the transfer portal and are dealing with many injuries at the skill positions. They’ll be thin in those skill position areas.
Defensive Struggles
The Tigers weren’t efficient as a defense this season. They allowed 27.75 points per game and gave up 233.42 yards in the air, with 164.75 yards on the ground. If the defense played any better, the Tigers would probably be in the College Football Playoff.
Still, LSU has a reliable pass rush and cleaned up missed tackles in the second half of the season.
Wisconsin only added 22.83 points per game offensively. The Badgers were much better on the defensive end. With many of the skill positions weak, the Badgers probably won’t be able to keep up with LSU’s offense.
Jayden Daniels isn’t going to be around. However, the offense probably won’t miss a beat with Nussmeier throwing the ball. He’s been confident about his growth and believes he’s more than just a gun-slinger.
I trust him. Take the Tigers at -10.
NCAAF Pick: LSU -10 (-110) via BetOnline
What About the Total?
The LSU Tigers hit the Over in 11 of 12 games this season. The offense was impossible to stop, which is what led Daniels to the Heisman Award.
Again, Daniels won’t be playing. But the offense is still in good hands under Nussmeier, who has already been with the team for three seasons. He’s the projected starter for LSU next season and paid his dues on the bench to wait for his opportunity. It’s rare for quarterbacks to wait for their opportunity thanks to the transfer portal.
However, Nussmeier wanted to be the quarterback at LSU and will now finally get the opportunity full-time. He won’t waste it. Especially with the fact that Brian Thomas and Malik Nabers will both be active and start the game.
Conversely, Wisconsin’s offense has struggled. They’ll be without plenty of playmakers on offense. That won’t help Tanner Mordecai. He’ll play behind a new center with Tanor Bortolini’s opt-out. He’ll also be without Trey Wedig on the offensive line after he played 252 snaps and decided to transfer.
Run Game and Quick Passes
Wisconsin could enter this game without three significant running backs and three significant wide receivers. However, I expect LSU to do most of the damage. If Wisconsin can just put up a few touchdowns, they’ll be in a great position to help this game get Over.
After all, Wisconsin has a veteran quarterback in Mordecai. He’s not always the most efficient, and Wisconsin loves to run the football. But he only threw four interceptions in the entire year despite throwing 274 attempts this season. That’s at least favorable for Wisconsin. If he can protect the ball, Wisconsin can use the run game and quick passes to get down the field on LSU.
The Tigers are a young defense that needs more experience. They struggled many times this season but improved over the last month of the year.
While LSU will perform better defensively than the numbers indicate, Wisconsin should still be able to add enough to help the Over.
Let’s grab the Over 55.5.
NCAAF Pick: Over 55.5 (-110) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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