Rockets vs. Warriors NBA Best Bets for April 28: Will the Dubs Take a 3-1 Lead?

No Butler, No Problem?

The biggest question around the Warriors for tonight’s game is the status of veteran star Jimmy Butler. Butler missed Saturday’s game with a pelvic injury that he suffered in Game 2. Butler was huge in Game 1 when he had 25 points, seven rebounds, six assists, and five steals. The Warriors were able to get the Game 3 win without Butler, but they’re going to need them to make a run.

With Butler’s status staying unknown until this game tips off, we’re going to have to handicap this game not knowing his status. The last game closed at Golden State -3, and this game is lined at Golden State -3.5, so it is safe to assume the top sportsbooks don’t think that Butler will play. However, since it’s the playoffs, Butler will do everything it takes to get out there, and it would not be a shock if we were able to suit up.

In Butler’s absence, the Warriors turned to Steph Curry for offense, and he responded with 36 points, 9 assists, and seven rebounds in the Game 3 win. Steph was helped out by Buddy Hield who had 17 points off the bench, and Gary Payton II who scored 16 points, including 11 in the deciding 4th quarter.

Jalen Green’s Playoff Performance

While no series is over till it’s over, Houston’s chances of victory in this series will be slim if they are not able to get the win tonight. What can the Rockets do better in the Chase Center?

First of all, they need to hit their free throws. The Rockets were a putrid 14-24 of the line for 58.3%. That’s simply not going to cut it in the NBA playoffs. Secondly, their field goal percentage needs to be better. The Rockets were 34-86 from the field for 39.5% shooting. The Rockets are going to shoot at least 45% from the field in order to get the win.

The Rockets were able to control the glass, winning the rebound battle in Game 3, 63-53. The Rockets do need to cut down on turnovers though, as they had 14 turnovers in the last game to the Warriors’ 10.

In the Rockets’ only win this series, their star guard Jalen Green had 38 points. In the two losses, Jalen Green has been disappointing. In Game 1, he only had seven points on 3-15 from the field. In Game 3, he only had nine points on 4-11 from the field. It is safe to say that the play of Jalen Green is in direct correlation to the Rockets’ chances to win.

Key Matchup

As mentioned earlier, Jalen Green is the catalyst for the Rockets’ success. Green will be covered by Brandin Podziemski and Jonathan Kuminga primarily. When Gary Payton II is in the game, he will have some chances to stop Green.

Also, the Rockets will use pick and roll for Green to select the matchup he wants, so whoever the Warriors decide to start on Green is not necessarily who would be guarding him at the end of possessions.

The Rockets need to work on isolating Green against players in which he has an advantage and not allowing the Warriors’ quick switches to get back to the defender the Warriors want.

If Green is able to be decisive and attack the mismatch immediately before the Warriors can recover, he has an excellent chance to repeat his Game 2 performance and lead his team to a victory. If Green has another lethargic performance, the Rockers will be down 3-1 headed back to Houston.

The Pick

I like the Warriors to get it done here. The Warriors’ playoff experience and ability to score in the half court in a close game have shined through so far in this series. The Rockets are excellent, but they lack half-court creation. This means when the game slows down towards the end, they are not always getting quality shots.

The Rockets are too reliant on offensive rebounding in order to generate high percentage looks, and the Warriors are going to do a good job on the glass and end this series as quickly as possible.

As an older team, the Warriors need as much rest as they can get, and going seven games with a young team like Houston would severely hamper their chances for the second round. The Warriors have an all-time great player and the better team. Back the Golden State Warriors.

NBA Pick: Golden State Warriors -3.5 (-110) at BetOnline

Golden State Warriors -3.5 (-110)

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