MLB Pick: Under 9 (-125) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)
We have a full 15-game slate of Major League Baseball betting matchups Sunday including a game in London. We are 6-3 in our last nine selections, and as usual, we have three more best bets for today’s slate with great value at the current MLB odds.
These best bets are based mostly on our proprietary model. Our model likes a total in St. Louis Sunday with the Rockies visiting the Cardinals.
For more of today’s analysis, check out:
Colorado Rockies vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Sunday, June 09, 2024 – 02:15 PM ET at Busch Stadium
This is a matchup of two offenses at poor offensive splits today, so bet the Under when Andre Pallante and the Cardinals host Ty Blach and the Rockies on Sunday.
News Not All Bad
Granted, Pallante has ugly frontline numbers at 1-2 with a 6.23 ERA and 5.13 xFIP. But keep in mind that has come over only 19 innings as this is his third start to go along with nine relief appearances. And he did show ability in his first two Major League seasons while posting xFIPs of 3.71 and 4.01 respectively.
More importantly, the very thing that made him effective those two seasons remains in place, as he has an outstanding groundball rate of 61.2%. That is to go along with an excellent soft-contact rate of 31.3%. He has been on the wrong end of the Luck stats with a .323 BABIP allowed and 65.2% strand rate, so expect improvement as those stabilize.
And let us not forget that Andre is facing a Colorado offense ranked 29th out of 30 teams in wRC+ against right-handers at only 80 despite playing its home games at high altitude.
Cardinals Struggle with Southpaws
The southpaw Blach has the better frontline stats here, although they are still quite mediocre at 2-3 with a 4.54 ERA and 4.24 xFIP in nine appearances covering 39.2 innings. But his xFIP is a good 3.55 on the road compared to 4.39 in the altitude of Coors Field, which itself is not terrible considering the environment.
Ty has abandoned his four-seam fastball in favor of a two-seam sinker this year, and that has led to a good groundball rate of 44.9% that is at its highest level since 2018. He has been a bit unlucky despite the spike in groundballs with a BABIP allowed of .316, so like Pallante, Blach also has room for positive regression.
The southpaw also benefits from facing a St. Louis lineup that ranks 28th in wRC+ against lefties at a putrid 76.
So, with each team being at very poor offensive splits and each pitcher having better metrics than mainstream stats, go Under in St. Louis.
Predicted Score: Cardinals 4 – Rockies 2
MLB Pick: Under 9 (-125) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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