Top NCAAF Pick: Alabama ML (+106) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)
Who would draw the most boos from a random crowd at our main offshore sportsbooks, Nick Saban or Jim Harbaugh? It might be a toss-up, much like the NCAAF odds for this year’s Rose Bowl between Alabama and Michigan.
Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Michigan Wolverines
Monday, January 01, 2024 – 05:00 PM ET at Rose Bowl
Nick Saban and Jim Harbaugh are among the most polarizing head coaches in college football today, and being matched up against one another in the ‘granddaddy of them all’ is only one reason why this year’s Rose Bowl clash between Alabama and Michigan is a game for the ages.
Rematch of 2020 Citrus Bowl
Of course, betting on the outcome is not a game for all ages, so please follow all applicable laws in your state or country. Those of you who are old enough will find that shops like BetOnline favor the Wolverines by 1½ with the total running 44½-45 at various outlets.
This is the sixth meeting between the two storied programs, with four of the previous five taking place in bowl games and Alabama owning a 3-2 lead in the series after winning each of the two latest encounters.
The Crimson Tide and Wolverines met three New Year’s Days ago, back when the world was still somewhat normal and nobody knew what COVID-19 meant. Alabama breezed to a 35-16 victory as 7½-point chalk in that 2020 Citrus Bowl, the final coming up a little shy of a 60-point total.
Their only non-bowl clash was the 2012 season opener for both schools, the matchup played in Arlington where the Crimson Tide raced to a 31-0 lead in the second quarter before coasting to a 41-14 final. That matchup found its way past a 48-point total with a TD to spare.
Maize & Blue Toughest to Score on in Nation
It’s difficult to imagine the whole sign-stealing scandal would have amounted to much back in the days when Bo Schembechler roamed the sidelines in Ann Arbor. For starters, coaches such as Woody Hayes would’ve been embarrassed to admit their signs had been stolen.
But then, the world has gone soft and Harbaugh’s two suspensions this season for being a bad little boy didn’t affect the team at all. If anything, the turmoil brought the Wolverines closer, as they pounded their way to a 13-0 record and covered the NCAAF odds in seven of their final nine contests.
Kudos certainly go to JJ McCarthy and the offense for getting Michigan into the playoffs. The unit ranked second in the Big Ten, averaging nearly 37 points a game, striking a fair balance on the ground and in the air.
But it was the defensive unit that really shined, leading the nation in fewest points allowed (9.5 ppg) and coming away with 24 turnovers on the season.
‘Bama Closes Season 5-1 O/U
Saban and his DC Kevin Steele know a thing or two about coaching up a defensive unit as well. The Crimson Tide finished second in the SEC allowing 18.4 PPG, and featured one of the best pass defenses in the conference led by DBs Caleb Downs and Terrion Arnold.
While the defense was busy forcing opponents into plenty of 3-&-outs, the offense was busy getting into the end zone often enough for Alabama to favor the ‘over’ on a 9-3-1 O/U/P clip.
The offense looked to be in trouble back in early September, as Jalen Milroe had a bumpy start to the season. The sophomore from Texas was picked off three times in Alabama’s first three games, but only threw three interceptions the rest of the season and seemed to figure out how to find Jermaine Burton and Isaiah Bond with more frequency as the season went on.
Bowl Histories & Betting Trends
It’s easy to forget the Crimson Tide playing in the Rose Bowl just two short January Firsts ago. But then, it’s easy not to want to remember much about 2020 overall, and the resulting mess that took place across all sports that year.
Bowling this year for a 20th consecutive campaign, Alabama pounded Notre Dame 31-14 in the 2021 Rose Bowl, which was played in Arlington, Texas. The Crimson Tide played in six Rose Bowls in Pasadena from 1925-45, going 3-2-1 in those contests. They are 46-27-3 in bowls, winning eight of the last 10 (5-5 ATS, 3-6-1 O/U/P).
Michigan is making its 51st bowl appearance, and looking to stop a 6-bowl losing streak. The Wolverines’ last postseason win came against Florida in the 2016 Citrus Bowl.
No stranger to Pasadena, the Wolverines are playing in their 21st Rose Bowl, and first since dropping a 32-18 decision to USC in the 2007 Grandaddy. They are 21-29 overall in bowl games, 1-8 across the last nine (2-7 ATS, 6-3 O/U).
The Pick
Michigan detractors will tell you the Big Ten was offensively challenged this season, leading to the Wolverines’ defense being statistically superior to Alabama. Crimson Tide detractors will point to how they didn’t do nearly as good a job protecting Milroe, as Michigan’s O-line did keeping McCarthy upright.
All I’m going to tell you is Alabama wins the game outright with a pick on a 23-21 Crimson Tide victory.
NCAAF Pick: Alabama ML (+106) at Bookmaker
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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