Royals vs. Orioles MLB Postseason Best Bet: Ragans Burns Baltimore in Game 1
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LT Profits
- October 1, 2024
MLB Pick: Royals ML (+141) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
We have arrived at the 2024 MLB Playoffs with all four Wild Card Series kicking off on Tuesday. We are here with three plays from top sportsbooks that we feel currently hold great betting value at the present MLB odds.
These plays are based mostly on our proprietary model. One of the best bets for Tuesday comes in Baltimore where our model favors a side when the Royals visit the Orioles.
Check out our MLB World Series betting page for the latest odds, expert insights, and all the info you need to make winning bets this postseason.
If you’re looking for more MLB value picks, check out:
- Tigers vs. Astros AL Wild Card Game 1
- Mets vs. Brewers NL Wild Card Game 1
And make sure to take a look at our YouTube channel, where our expert covered the Mets vs. Brewers and Braves vs. Padres games.
Kansas City Royals vs. Baltimore Orioles
Tuesday, October 01, 2024 – 04:08 PM ET at Oriole Park at Camden Yards
Corbin Burnes became the ace of the Orioles staff as expected this year after being acquired from Milwaukee, but Cole Ragans was just as good while blossoming into the Royals ace. We are taking the value with Kansas City at an underdog price in Game 1.
Third Year is the Charm
Cole Ragans showed some nice flashes in his first two seasons, first with the Rangers and then with the Royals, but he came into his own this year at age 26. He may have finished with a nondescript 11-9 record, but he ranked 12th in the Major Leagues in ERA at 3.14 and 15th in xFIP at 3.46.
Cole also ranked fourth in strikeout rate at an impressive 10.77/9, thanks to having one of the best change-ups in the game rated 114 on Stuff+. That nicely complimented his 95.4 MPH fastball that garnered a 105 rating. This mix helped induce a better than average 17.8% soft contact rate and an outstanding swinging strike rate of 14.4%.
He also closed the season strong, allowing a grand total of three runs in his last four starts including tossing six scoreless innings in his final outing allowing just three hits.
Is This Price Deserved?
Now, make no mistake, Corbin Burnes is also one of the better pitchers in the league after finishing 15-9 while ranking seventh in ERA at 2.92 and 19th in xFIP at 3.55. However, as you can see, there is not much separation between these starters in ERA while it is Ragans that has the slightly better xFIP, making Burnes seem overvalued as a decided favorite here.
Another big difference is that Corbin saw his strikeout rate dip to 8.38/9 this season, marking the first time it was lower than one batter per inning since his rookie season of 2018. We do not see that improving against a Kansas City offense with the third lowest strikeout rate in the majors at 19.4%.
The Pick
So, the bottom line here is that the two ace starters are very close metrically, and Burnes does not figure to match his already diminishing strikeout rate against a disciplined Royals’ offense. Thus, we are backing Kansas City with Ragans at an underdog price.
Predicted Score: Royals 4 – Orioles 3
MLB Pick: Royals ML (+141) at Heritage Sports
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
