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Royals vs. Orioles MLB Postseason Best Bet: Runs Barren in Baltimore Game 2
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LT Profits
- October 2, 2024
Table of Contents
MLB Pick: Under 7.5 (-108) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
We went 2-1 Tuesday with a +141 winner, and the 2024 MLB Playoffs now continue Wednesday with Game 2 of all four Wild Card Series. And we are here with the three plays we feel have the most betting value at the current MLB odds available on top sportsbooks.
These value bets are based mostly on our proprietary model, which fancies the total in the Royals vs. Orioles matchup on Wednesday.
Check out our MLB World Series betting page for the latest odds, expert insights, and all the info you need to make winning bets this postseason.
If you’re looking for more MLB value picks, check out:
- Mets vs. Brewers NL Wild Card Game 2
- Braves vs. Padres NL Wild Card Game 2
And make sure to take a look at our YouTube channel, where our expert covered the Mets vs. Brewers and Braves vs. Padres games.
Kansas City Royals vs. Baltimore Orioles
Wednesday, October 02, 2024 – 04:38 PM ET at Oriole Park at Camden Yards
The Royals pulled the upset in Game 1 in a 1-0 pitching duel, and we are banking on another Under in Game 2 with Seth Lugo visiting Zach Eflin and the Orioles.
Solid Since Trade
Zach Eflin finished 10-9 overall for the Rays and Orioles combined, but he deserved better as he finished with a 3.59 ERA and 3.81 xFIP. And he has indeed gotten better support with the Orioles going 5-2 in a Baltimore uniform, posting a spiffy 2.60 ERA over nine starts. Perhaps best of all, he has been ultra-consistent since the acquisition, allowing three runs or less in all nine outings!
Zach is not a huge strikeout guy at 7.29/9, but he counteracted that nicely with the second lowest walk rate in the Major Leagues at 1.31/9. He also yielded an above average soft contact rate of 18.1% and had a good groundball rate of 42.7%. Eflin also benefits from facing a struggling Kansas City offense that ranks 27th in wRC+ against right-handers since September 1st at a mere 75. And that certainly did not improve in Game 1.
Career Year
Now we fully admit we have been expecting negative regression from Seth Lugo for practically the entire season, and it just never came. He ended up having a career year at the age of 34, finishing 16-9 with a 3.00 ERA that ranked 10th in the majors. However, his xFIP was noticeably worse at 3.83 as his K/BB ratio was nothing special at 7.88/2.09 per nine innings, yet Lugo continued to succeed.
Seth is not a hard thrower at 92.2 MPH, but then again, he only threw his fastball 24.0% of the time. He has four pitches with over 13% usage, led by his curveball at 26.2%. That proved to be a smart choice as the curve merited a great 135 rating on Stuff+, and that was the key to his success despite otherwise lacking metrics.
So, can Logo continue to defy his Sabermetrics in the post-season? Well, he gets a break there with the Baltimore offense not being as good in the second half of the season as the first half, and that did not change getting shut out yesterday.
The Pick
We are betting on Lugo to have at least one more good start in him. Combine that with Eflin’s good form and two cold offenses and take the Under on Wednesday.
Predicted Score: Orioles 4 – Royals 2
MLB Pick: Under 7.5 (-108) at Heritage Sports
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
