Royals vs. Yankees ALDS Game 2 Best Bet: Scoring Not Bountiful in the Bronx
-
LT Profits
- October 7, 2024
MLB Pick: Under 7.5 (-115) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
The 2024 MLB Playoffs continue with both Game 2s of the ALDS Monday and both Game 3s of the NLDS Tuesday. We are 4-2 in the Playoffs so far, and we are back with three plays over these two days that we feel currently hold great betting value at the present MLB odds available on top sportsbooks.
These plays are based mostly on our proprietary model. One of our best bets for Monday comes in the Bronx, where our model points to a total when the Royals visit the Yankees again for Game 2.
Check out our MLB World Series betting page for the latest odds, expert insights, and all the info you need to make winning bets this postseason.
If you’re looking for more MLB value picks, check out:
- Tigers vs. Guardians ALDS Game 2
- Dodgers vs. Padres NLDS Game 3
Kansas City Royals vs. New York Yankees
Monday, October 07, 2024 – 07:38 PM ET at Yankee Stadium
The Yankees drew first blood against the Royals with a wild 6-5 win in Game 1. We see a much lower scoring affair in Game 2 and are betting on the Under with Kansas City ace Cole Ragans taking on Carlos Rodon.
Bona Fide Ace
Cole Ragans finished a deceptive 11-9 as he was one of the better pitchers in baseball, ranking 12th in the majors in ERA at 3.14 and 15th in xFIP at 3.46. He then did what aces do in Game 1 of the Wild Card Series, tossing six scoreless innings while allowing only four hits with an impressive nine strikeouts in a 1-0 win.
Cole has a vast 5-pitch arsenal with four pitches rated above 100 in Stuff+, led by a 95.4 MPH fastball rated 105 and an outstanding change-up rated 114. That has led to a stellar strikeout rate of 10.77/9 fueled by a career-high swinging strike rate of 14.4%.
Granted, the Yankees offense owns a good wRC+ of 107 against southpaws, but that is still their lesser split compared to their league leading 120 against righties. And Ragans did limit the Bombers to two runs (on a two-run homer) and just three hits in six innings with seven strikeouts in his only start against them on September 11th.
Finally Healthy
Carlos Rodon was finally healthy this season after being beset with injuries in recent years, and he justified the big contract he signed with the Yankees before last season. He posted a career-high in wins going 16-9 with his velocity back at 95.4 MPH, producing a nice strikeout rate of his own at 10.03/9 with a 14.3% swinging-strike rate.
Carlos had a rather nondescript 3.96 ERA and 4.09 xFIP, but he is currently in his best form of the year. He ended the regular season allowing two earned runs or less in six of his last seven starts with a 2.68 ERA, 3.45 xFIP, and 10.49/9 strikeout rate over those outings.
This stretch includes holding the Royals to two earned runs on five hits with nine strikeouts in six innings on September 9th. And remember, Kansas City ranked only 26th in wRC+ against left-handers at a mere 84.
The Pick
What we have here is an ace in Ragans, a healthy Rodon pitching his best ball, and two offenses at their lesser splits. This sounds like a great recipe for an Under on Monday.
Predicted Score: Yankees 3 – Royals 2
MLB Pick: Under 7.5 (-115) at Bovada
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
