Saint Mary’s vs. Alabama 2025 NCAA Tournament Second Round Best Bets

How They Got Here

Alabama and Saint Mary’s earned their spots in very different styles. The Crimson Tide had to grind through a high-scoring battle to outlast Robert Morris, 90-81 on Friday.

Mark Sears was the engine with 22 points, 10 assists, and five boards, while Mouhamed Dioubate came off the bench to chip in a double-double of 18 points and 10 rebounds. Clifford Omoruyi added 17 points, along with four rebounds and three steals, helping secure a win that didn’t come easy.

Saint Mary’s was busy dragging Vanderbilt into the mud and keeping the pace brutally slow. The Gaels came back late to squeak out a 59-56 win on Friday.

Jordan Ross paced them with 15 points, three rebounds, and three assists. Augustas Marciulionis added 14 points and eight rebounds, while Luke Barrett and Mitchell Saxen each scored 12 and combined for 21 boards, dominating the glass when it mattered most.

Every team that faces Saint Mary’s ends up playing on the Gaels’ terms. That’s not necessarily a slow pace—they’re just ruthlessly methodical. They’re precise with their shot selection, disciplined in transition, and elite on the boards.

They lead the entire country in rebounding margin, and they don’t give up second chances. They don’t force transition chances unless they’re absolutely there. And when it comes to defense, they don’t allow easy points—period.

Gonzaga? Saint Mary’s held them to 58 points twice and 67 in the third meeting. Only two teams have cracked 70 against them since Nebraska managed it back in mid-November. No one scores big on the Gaels.

Alabama is the outlier. The Tide forces you to run. Saint Mary’s might be the best in the country at rebounding margin, but Alabama hauls in more rebounds overall—leading the nation in both total boards and defensive boards.

That rebounding presence fuels their fast break. When Alabama controls the glass, the game instantly speeds up. Saint Mary’s will try to impose structure and pace, but Alabama has a way of knocking teams off balance. If they start quickly and get their perimeter game going, the Gaels could be in for an uphill climb.

But there’s a catch—Alabama falters when it’s dragged into a grind.

Alabama Struggles in Low-Scoring Battles

The Crimson Tide are 1-3 this year when they fail to reach 80 points. The lone win in that group? A squeaker over McNeese. The formula is clear: if Alabama doesn’t push the pace into the 80s, their win probability plummets.

And here’s the key stat: no one has scored 80 on Saint Mary’s all season. Not Utah State. Not Akron. Not even Gonzaga in three attempts. That means Alabama’s going to be stuck in the 60s or 70s—exactly where it doesn’t want to be.

Is Grant Nelson 100% Healthy?

Grant Nelson’s lingering injury only adds to the uncertainty. He played in the first round scare, but whether he’s back to full strength remains to be seen. Neither of these teams lights it up from the free-throw line, which could make crunch time a grind. And if this turns into a slugfest, it’s the Gaels who thrive in that setting.

Everything points to this game staying below Alabama’s comfort zone. And if that happens, Saint Mary’s has the edge.

Key Matchups

This matchup has the feel of a stylistic chess match more than a typical March Madness slugfest. On one side, Saint Mary’s brings its methodical tempo, elite rebounding fundamentals, and defensive toughness.

On the other, Alabama thrives on chaos—pushing the ball, creating fast-break chances, and forcing high-possession games that often end with them hitting the 90-point mark. It’s not just a clash of styles, it’s a direct battle of wills. Whoever imposes their rhythm first could be in control the rest of the way.

Saint Mary’s Rebounding vs. Alabama’s Transition Offense

Saint Mary’s is the best team in the country in rebounding margin. They box out with precision, rarely give up second-chance points, and dominate the boards as a group—Barrett and Saxen alone combined for 21 rebounds in their last outing. But Alabama doesn’t wait around after a miss.

The Crimson Tide lead the nation in total rebounds and defensive rebounds, then immediately turns those into transition bursts.

This battle isn’t just about grabbing the ball—it’s about what each team does with it next. If Saint Mary’s slows the outlet and controls the tempo off the glass, Alabama could find itself stalled.

Alabama’s Offensive Tempo vs. Saint Mary’s Half-Court Defense

Alabama wants to run. They posted 90 in the first round behind Mark Sears’ 22-point, 10-assist gem and key support from Dioubate and Omoruyi. That kind of output is Alabama’s comfort zone. But they’re just 1-3 when held under 80, and Saint Mary’s hasn’t let anyone hit that number this season. Not even Gonzaga in three attempts.

The Gaels specialize in shrinking the shot clock and forcing teams to play late into possessions, which erodes the Tide’s rhythm and limits scoring explosions. If Saint Mary’s drags this game into the 50s or low 60s, Alabama will have to get creative to generate points in the half-court.

Mark Sears vs. Saint Mary’s Pressure Defense

Sears was spectacular in the opening round, but now he’ll face a defense that smothers ball-handlers and punishes poor decision-making. Saint Mary’s doesn’t gamble—they rotate, help, and contest without fouling. With the game likely to slow down,

Sears won’t have as many transition opportunities to operate. His decision-making in tight windows, especially against a defense that doesn’t give up easy lanes, will be pivotal.

Depth and Impact From Role Players

Dioubate’s 18 points and 10 boards off the bench were huge for Alabama in the first round. Saint Mary’s will counter with a balanced core—Ross, Marciulionis, Barrett, and Saxen all contribute on both ends. The margin could come down to whose role players better adapt when things get ugly in the half-court.

Nelson’s health looms large here. He played in the first round, but whether he’s at 100% is still a question. If he’s limited, Alabama’s rotation gets thinner in a game that will demand physicality.

The Pick

This game will be decided not by athleticism or star power, but by pace and execution. If Alabama hits early threes and builds a lead, they can force Saint Mary’s out of its comfort zone and speed things up. But that’s a big “if” against a Gaels defense that closes out hard and controls possessions.

Expect Saint Mary’s to do what it always does—grind the clock, control the glass, and force the Tide to operate in uncomfortable spaces. Alabama’s fast-break chances will be rare, and if they don’t hit threes at a high clip, they’ll struggle to reach the 70-point threshold.

This has all the makings of a physical, low-scoring battle, and that plays straight into Saint Mary’s hands. Look for the Gaels to control the tempo, win the rebounding war, and frustrate Alabama into rushed possessions and late-game mistakes.

NCAA Tournament Pick: Under 149 (-105) at BetOnline 

Under 149 (-105)

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