Saints vs. Chiefs Monday Night Football Pick: Keeping the Faith With Kansas City

Is This the End of the Road for Kansas City?

The defending Super Bowl champions may be the last remaining undefeated AFC team at 4-0, and they may have been profitable football picks thus far at 3-1 ATS, but you wouldn’t know it by the way they’ve played. Each of their victories was by a touchdown or less, and K.C. needed some fortunate bounces along the way.

They need some wideouts, too. No. 1 WR Rashee Rice (knee) appears to have avoided a more serious ACL tear, but he’s still going to miss Monday night’s matchup with the New Orleans Saints (2-2 SU, 3-1 ATS). Not ideal when you’ve already lost WR Hollywood Brown to a shoulder injury.

Bettors can smell the blood in the water. Kansas City opened as 6.5-point home faves on the NFL odds board; as we go to press, the defending champs are down to -5.5 at most online sportsbooks, including BetOnline at –108 vigorish. In our judgment here at the ranch, those two cents are the tipping point that makes it worth throwing more than just a token bet at K.C.

Who Will Replace Rice?

Kansas City fans have been fretting over their WR depth chart since 2022 when Tyreek Hill was salary-dumped to the Miami Dolphins for a batch of picks. It turned out to be a smart trade for both teams, but now that the Dolphins look like fish food without injured QB Tua Tagovailoa, the rumor mill is churning that Hill could be on his way back to Missouri.

Then you have the situation with WR Davante Adams and the Las Vegas Raiders. This team is going nowhere – but Adams might be on the move to Kansas City if the rumors are true. Then again, “sources” told ESPN’s Adam Schefter on Wednesday that Adams has the Saints and the New York Jets at or near the top of his wish list.

And no wonder: Why would you want to leave Garden Minshew II behind to play for Patrick Mahomes II? Minshew has the higher CPOE (Completion Percentage Over Expectation, as per nfelo) at plus-0.8%, compared to the plus-0.6% CPOE for the three-time Super Bowl MVP.

Clearly, it will be much better for Adams to saddle up with New Orleans and QB Derek Carr, who’s up to plus-3.9% CPOE playing for new offensive co-ordinator Klint Kubiak. Did we mention Carr and Adams were teammates with the Raiders, and at Fresno State before that?

Seriously, Who Will Mahomes Throw To?

It’s always about Mahomes, isn’t it? According to the man himself, WR Justin Watson and WR JuJu Smith-Schuster are likely to see more targets this Monday, as will TE Noah Gray.

It’s not like Mahomes has been bereft of targets since Hill left. Smith-Schuster had 78 catches for 933 yards when he first signed with K.C. as a free agent in 2022; he’s back for a second tour of duty after escaping New England. Watson doesn’t have the softest pair of hands, though, and Gray has seen just nine targets all year as TE Travis Kelce’s back-up.

I’d be a bit more concerned about replacing the production Kansas City was getting from RB Isiah Pacheco (fibula). And I certainly can’t ignore how well the Saints have played this year, leading the league at plus-0.28 net EPA (Expected Points above Average) per play. The defending champs are barely above league average at plus-0.08 EPA.

The Pick

Having said all that, the analytics I’m looking at have K.C. rated about seven points better than New Orleans, even if a good chunk of that is based on pre-2024 performance. That’s good enough for a standard single-unit wager at –5.5 (–108) in our eyes. Bet accordingly, and may the prolate spheroid be with you.

NFL Pick: Kansas City -5.5 (-108) at BetOnline

Kansas City -5.5 (-108)

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