Saints vs. Packers Monday Night Football Pick: Fade the Frozen Tundra

You could have convinced me to eat some chalk this week. The Green Bay Packers (10-4 SU, 8-6 ATS) opened as 13.5-point home favorites on the Week 16 NFL odds board, with the New Orleans Saints (5-9 SU, 6-8 ATS) supplying the opposition; double-digit faves aren’t normally our thing here at the ranch, but this game has PACKERS written all over it in large capital letters.

Then the online sportsbooks went and made it Packers -14. That is just way too tight now, so we’re hitting up that 42-point total at BetOnline for our Monday Night Football picks. And as you can see, we’re recommending the Over – with one very important proviso.

Should I Bet on the Packers?

It was tempting at -13.5. We’ve reached that special time of year when NFL teams at the bottom of the food chain just give up and show their bellies. Specifically, the sharps are looking for teams with nothing to play for that are going on the road, preferably into adverse weather conditions they’re not used to, with rosters that have been ravaged by injury.

Because they play in the NFC South, the Saints haven’t technically been eliminated from the playoffs yet, but they’re three games behind Tampa Bay and two behind Atlanta with just three games left in the regular season. With no Wild Card path in front of them, New Orleans has less than a 1% chance of reaching the postseason (as per NFL.com).

New Orleans will indeed be on the road this Monday, to play a late-December night game at Lambeau Field. That’s about as adverse as it gets. And yes, the Saints roster is a mess; Spencer Rattler is expected to fill in for Derek Carr (hand) at quarterback, joined by multiple second- and third-stringers on offense.

Will It Snow at Lambeau Field?

Maybe. As we go to press, Monday night’s forecast at AccuWeather has a “little snow at times” with temperatures just below freezing. But there isn’t much wind expected, and all this is coming after a relatively sunny weekend; it’s also supposed to clear up again in short order, with no more precipitation in the forecast until next Friday.

Even if we were willing to stick with the Packers at -14, we’d recommend waiting until closer to kick-off to see how the weather turns out before making your NFL picks. Of course, if things get too nasty out there, it might be difficult for either of these teams to score 14 points, but for that spread bet to make sense, we want the Saints to feel as miserable as can be.

You should obviously wait before hitting up that total as well. If the weather isn’t going to be all that bad Monday night – and there’s a good chance it won’t be – the Over makes sense from several angles. You’ve got a strong Packers offense going up against a poorly motivated Saints defense that was league-average when healthy, and casuals tend to bet the Under too much in colder weather without paying enough attention to wind and precipitation.

The Pick

We should also mention that Saints RB Alvin Kamara (4.2 yards per carry) is questionable for Monday with an adductor injury. New Orleans won’t practice until Thursday, so we don’t have any updates at press time – all the more reason to hit the pause button. Bet accordingly, and from all of us here at the ranch, may the prolate spheroid be with you and yours throughout the holidays.

NFL Pick: Over 42 (-105) at BetOnline 

Over 42 (-105)

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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.