Top NFL Pick: Chiefs ML (+100) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
The stage is set for Super Bowl LVIII.
The San Francisco 49ers and reigning Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs prepare to throw down in Sin City on February 11th to determine which team will take home the hardware and have their names etched in NFL history.
Explore the analysis to discover the optimal Super Bowl play with competitive NFL odds at our top-rated online sportsbooks.
San Francisco 49ers vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Sunday, February 11, 2024 – 06:30 PM ET at Allegiant Stadium
Key Stats – 49ers
- San Francisco is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games on the road.
- San Francisco is 8-2 SU in their last 10 games when playing as the favorite.
- San Francisco is 9-2 SU in their last 11 games.
Key Stats – Chiefs
- Kansas City is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games.
- Kansas City is 13-3 SU in their last 16 games against an NFC opponent.
- Kansas City is 5-1 SU & ATS in their last 6 games when playing against San Francisco.
Let’s Put the Conspiracy Theories to Rest
Before we begin, let’s put to bed all of these conspiracy theories that the NFL wanted this matchup so badly that Roger Goodell and his minions cooked up a plot to have the best teams play each other in the league’s biggest game on its grandest stage.
The problem with conspiracy theories is that it presupposes the parties involved could keep their collective mouths shut and that the risk of being caught would be well worth the reward. It would be tough enough to have two idiots shoplift a Kit Kat bar and keep that a secret without one of them spilling the beans in a drunken stupor, let alone an entire league, its players, and referees to do the same.
Any professional sport is only as legitimate as the integrity of its game.
If it became apparent that the NFL was scripting these events then there would be no reason to watch them. Ratings would plummet. All that money would dry up faster than a Kardashian could spend it.
Do you think one unappealing Super Bowl matchup is worth risking the entire reputation of the NFL and its existence? Of course not.
Let’s also understand the only way a player is going to tank a game is for money. These guys are making far too much of it to be tempted.
Lastly, before this matchup availed itself, the rumor was that the colors of this year’s Super Bowl graphics were identical to those of the Ravens and 49ers. So much for that.
The bottom line is that the teams many predicted would be playing in February before the season started are indeed playing in February. Despite the lousy calls and the questionable coaching decisions, which are part and parcel of something called human error, the two best teams from each conference are going toe-to-toe for our viewing pleasure.
So, with that, here are my early thoughts, just one day removed from the conference championships held yesterday, as to which team holds the edge on Super Sunday.
Tale of the Tape
Quarterbacks – 49ers: Brock Purdy vs. Chiefs: Patrick Mahomes
Plucky and surprisingly talented Brock Purdy is a good blue-collar story. However, make no mistake. He is no contender for Patrick Mahomes’ throne as the best quarterback in the game and one of the greatest to ever throw a football in the NFL.
Advantage: Chiefs
Receivers – 49ers: Samuel, Aiyuk, Kittle vs. Chiefs: Rice, Watson, Kelce
Let’s remove the pass-catching running backs from the equation. San Francisco’s Christian McCaffrey and KC’s Isiah Pacheco have their own category.
There is only one sure-fire Hall of Famer amongst these six and it’s Travis Kelce.
However, give Mahomes Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, and the Pro Bowler tight end George Kittle in exchange for the triumvirate he has at his disposal and an argument can be made no team would touch them.
Advantage: 49ers
Running Backs – 49ers: McCaffrey & Mitchell vs. Chiefs: Pacheco & Edwards-Helaire
I’m a big fan of Isiah Pacheco. He is a seventh-round pick out of Rutgers a few years ago but Christian McCaffrey is a force of nature. He, Patrick Mahomes, and Travis Kelce will receive a first-ballot welcome into the Hall of Fame. However, McCaffrey against Pacheco is a first-round TKO for the Niners.
Advantage: 49ers
Offensive Line – 49ers vs. Chiefs
I was stunned by how thoroughly stymied the ferocious pass rush of the Ravens was against the Chiefs offensive line in the first quarter.
Mahomes had time for a cup of coffee in the pocket. I said to my buddy that there had to be some offensive holding that wasn’t being called – without any evidence by the way – because Baltimore was so ineffective.
However, shortly thereafter, the calls began to mount and the Ravens’ pass rush started to permeate the Chiefs’ backfield. Nevertheless, both of these offensive lines rank in the middle of the pack. However, the Chiefs did it without their best blocker on Sunday, All-Pro guard Joe Thuney, and still defeated the Ravens, 17-10.
Advantage: None
Defense – 49ers vs. Chiefs
- Points Allowed: No. 2 Chiefs (17.3 PPG) vs. No. 3 49ers (17.5 PPG)
- Passing Yards Allowed: No. 4 Chiefs (176.5 PYG) vs. No. 14 49ers (214.2 PYG)
- Rushing Yards Allowed: No. 3 49ers (89.7 RYG) vs. No. 18 Chiefs (113.2 RYG)
Advantage: Chiefs
Prediction
Although I may change my mind when I write my Swinger’s Best Bets next week, my initial feeling is that these two teams are extremely even. The biggest advantage comes at the most important position – quarterback.
Brock Purdy has 2 touchdown passes, 1 interception, a 61.4% completion percentage, and a passer rating of 87.7 with 62 rushing yards on 11 carries in his two postseason appearances.
Patrick Mahomes has 4 touchdown passes, 0 interceptions, a 68% completion percentage, and a passer rating of 100.7 with 75 rushing yards on 14 carries in his three postseason appearances.
The Chiefs’ pass defense is elite while the 49ers is middling at best. I think I just convinced myself that the Chiefs are my Super Bowl pick. Even the odds have plummeted from 49ers -2 ½ to -1 in just one day. The steam is on KC and so am I.
NFL Pick: Chiefs ML (+100) at Bovada
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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