Seahawks vs. Rams NFL Week 18 Pick: Over and Out in L.A.
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Jason Lake
- January 3, 2025
NFL Pick: Over 38.5 (–108) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
Welcome to Week 18, where everything is made up and the points don’t matter. Or at least they don’t for Sunday’s matchup between the Seattle Seahawks and the Los Angeles Rams. The Rams (10-6 SU, 8-8 ATS) have already clinched the NFC West, and the Seahawks (9-7 SU, 6-9-1 ATS) were eliminated from Wild Card contention last week.
Technically, the Rams still have the No. 3 seed in the NFC to fight over. A win or a tie against Seattle, or a loss by Tampa Bay, would be enough to prevent Los Angeles from slipping into fourth. But the difference between facing the No. 5 seed (currently Minnesota) and the No. 6 seed (currently Washington) in the opening round isn’t enough for L.A. to risk their health this Sunday.
Indeed, head coach Sean McVay confirmed Wednesday that backup QB Jimmy Garoppolo will get the start for Week 18 instead of Matthew Stafford. If you saw the writing on the wall and grabbed Seattle as 2.5-point road dogs at the open, well done; as we go to press, the ‘Hawks are 6.5-point favorites at most online sportsbooks.
This being a glorified exhibition game, we were more interested in pounding the Under here at the ranch – but as usual, the sharps got there first, driving the total down from 42 to 38.5 on the NFL odds board at Heritage Sports. So we’re putting the Over in our Week 18 football picks at this new price; should we end this regular season in a blaze of glory with the classic 2-team favorite-Over parlay?
Seattle Seahawks vs. Los Angeles Rams
Sunday, January 05, 2025 – 04:25 PM ET at SoFi Stadium
Why Bet the Parlay?
Because it’s Jimmy Garoppolo. He’s the main reason those NFL point spreads and totals are on the move, and fair enough – he’s no Matthew Stafford.
However, the betting market is probably taking it a bit too far as usual. Garoppolo has been underestimated his entire career, from third-stringer behind Tom Brady in New England to near-Super Bowl champion in San Francisco, and now here in L.A.
Sunday will be Garoppolo’s first appearance of the 2024 campaign, so we can’t say for sure how well he’s going to perform against the Seahawks. His performance level fell dramatically in 2023 during his lone season in Las Vegas; Garoppolo posted a 33.9 QBR, down from 56.3 in his last year with the Niners. How much of that was because Garoppolo was falling apart at age 32, and how much was because the Raiders are hell-bent on filling every square inch of real estate in the quarterback graveyard?
No Postseason, No Problem
The Seahawks will be downcast after once again barely missing the postseason, but there’s hope for the future under first-year head coach Mike McDonald, who squeezed a commendable performance out of this injury-plagued team.
They finished No. 13 overall on defense at minus-0.02 EPA per play, and improved as the year went along and they got healthier. I don’t expect the Seahawks to fold their tents on Sunday.
The Pick
McDonald said Wednesday he’s planning to stick with Geno Smith at quarterback, rather than give back-up Sam Howell any reps. Combine that with McVay’s decision to rest multiple starters Sunday beyond Stafford, and you can see why the NFL spreads for this matchup have moved this far.
So let’s stick with that Over as a single now that we’re looking at such a small total. These two teams combined for 40 points before going to overtime in Week 9, when the Rams squeaked out a 26-20 victory (Under 48) that ultimately decided the division.
They’ll be indoors (mostly – SoFi’s roof is partially open to the elements on three sides) this time, with no “12s” in the crowd messing up their cadence; bet accordingly, and we’ll see you on the Road to Super Bowl LIX.
NFL Pick: Over 38.5 (–108) at Heritage Sports
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
