Steelers vs. Commanders NFL Week 10 Picks: Washington Will Prevail at Home

Pittsburgh Dominated New York

Under the Monday night lights, the Steelers secured a 26-18 victory over the Giants on October 28, marking their 22nd consecutive home win in primetime. Calvin Austin III sparked the offense with dynamic plays, while the defense sealed the win with critical turnovers in the final minutes.

T.J. Watt strip-sacked Giants quarterback Daniel Jones with under three minutes remaining, halting one New York drive, and rookie cornerback Beanie Bishop intercepted Jones with just 42 seconds left to secure the outcome.

With three straight wins, the Steelers headed into their bye week atop the AFC North. Initially leaning on their defense through the season’s early games, Pittsburgh’s offense has surged since Russell Wilson’s return from a calf injury that sidelined him for the season’s first six games.

Wilson completed 20 of 28 passes for 278 yards and a touchdown in his second home start with the Steelers. His sole setback was a fumble with 4:42 left, briefly giving the Giants a chance to rally.

Najee Harris rushed for 114 yards, marking his third consecutive game with over 100 yards, a career first. Chris Boswell added four field goals, providing crucial points for an offense that struggled to finish drives in Giants territory.

Wilson’s distribution was effective, connecting with eight different receivers and relieving some of the pressure on George Pickens, who has shouldered much of the offensive load in recent weeks. Austin hauled in three catches for 54 yards, Van Jefferson contributed four catches for 62 yards, and third-string tight end MyCole Pruitt even made the stat sheet with a reception.

Commanders Cruised Past Giants

The Commanders improved to 7-2—their best start since 1996—by defeating the Giants 27-22 on Sunday, completing a season sweep of their NFC East rivals.

Rookie phenom Jayden Daniels was sharp, throwing two touchdowns to Terry McLaurin in the first half and managing the game effectively with 15 completions on 22 attempts for 209 yards. Daniels capped the game with a 42-yard pass to Olamide Zaccheaus after the Giants had closed the gap to five.

Commanders linebacker Dante Fowler made a game-changing strip-sack early, setting up Washington’s opening touchdown. Austin Ekeler, stepping in for the injured Brian Robinson, added a one-yard score as the Commanders demonstrated a balanced attack against New York’s struggling defense.

Key Matchups

The Steelers are hitting their stride with the return of Wilson. The Commanders, meanwhile, are on a historic 7-2 start, thanks largely to Daniels’ steady play and a defense that knows how to generate turnovers. This matchup will be determined by which team can best exploit the opposing quarterback’s vulnerabilities.

Russell Wilson vs. Commanders’ Pass Rush

Wilson’s experience and poise have lifted Pittsburgh’s offense since his return, but the Commanders’ defensive front, led by Dante Fowler, will look to apply pressure and force him into mistakes. Wilson has been sharp, completing 71% of his passes against the Giants, but a late fumble suggests he may still be working back to full form.

If Fowler and the Commanders can disrupt the pocket and rush Wilson’s decision-making, Pittsburgh’s offense could become one-dimensional. Wilson’s ability to distribute the ball to a diverse group of targets will be key to overcoming this pressure.

Steelers’ Run Game vs. Commanders’ Defensive Line

Harris has been on a tear, with three consecutive 100-yard games, providing Pittsburgh with a reliable ground game to balance the offense. This sets up a critical test for Washington’s defensive line, which has shown moments of weakness against power runners.

Harris’ ability to break through the initial line of defense and move the chains will be essential if the Steelers hope to sustain long drives and control the clock. If Washington can contain Harris, they could force Pittsburgh into more predictable passing situations, where Fowler and the pass rush can thrive.

Jayden Daniels vs. Steelers’ Secondary

Daniels’ playmaking ability has given Washington’s offense a lift, and his chemistry with McLaurin has been a bright spot. However, Pittsburgh’s secondary is no slouch and has consistently capitalized on rookie mistakes.

Daniels will need to make quick, smart decisions against a unit that thrives on turnovers. His success may depend on establishing a rhythm early and avoiding errant throws that could shift momentum to Pittsburgh. If the Steelers can pressure him into rushed passes, their secondary could come up with game-changing plays.

Special Teams and Turnovers

Both teams have shown they can capitalize on opponent mistakes, and this game may come down to who can better control the ball. Chris Boswell’s reliable leg could give the Steelers a scoring edge if drives stall, while Washington’s defense has shown a knack for creating short fields.

Turnovers in the fourth quarter could be the deciding factor, as both defenses look to lock down in critical moments.

The Pick

This game will likely be a grind-it-out affair, with both defenses aiming to control the tempo. On paper, the Steelers’ run game and Wilson’s experience should give them a slight edge, but the Commanders’ defense won’t make it easy and their offense is firing on all cylinders.

NFL Pick: Commanders -2.5 (-113) at BetOnline

Commanders -2.5 (-113)

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