Steelers vs. Ravens AFC Wild Card Round Pick: Time for a Pittsburgh Upset?
-
Jason Lake
- January 7, 2025
Top NFL Pick: Steelers ML (+430) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
Was it all a mirage? The Pittsburgh Steelers looked like they were onto something when they replaced Justin Fields with Russell Wilson in Week 7, but here they are on a four-game losing streak (1-3 ATS) heading into the postseason as the No. 6 seed in the AFC. That includes their 34-17 loss to the Baltimore Ravens in Week 16 as 7.5-point road dogs on the NFL odds board.
The Ravens went 4-0 SU and ATS over the same span to claim the AFC North and the No. 2 conference seed; they opened as 9.5-point home faves for Saturday’s Wild Card matchup, and have already moved to –10 at most online sportsbooks as we go to press. Of course, we’re going to recommend Pittsburgh now that they’ve hit the magic number 10. Right?
Well, sort of. As you can see, we’re going full moneyline with our NFL picks here at the ranch. The Steelers are available as +430 underdogs at BetOnline, a price that’s far too juicy for us to ignore – even if Wilson might be on his last legs.
If you’re looking for more value picks, make sure to take a look at our YouTube channel for more daily betting advice.
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Baltimore Ravens
Saturday, January 11, 2025 – 08:00 PM ET at M&T Bank Stadium
Why Should I Bet on the Steelers?
It’s a classic “buy low/sell high” situation.
There’s no arguing the Ravens (12-5 SU, 10-6-1 ATS) produced the better body of work during the 2024 NFL regular season, posting a plus-157 point differential to tie the Buffalo Bills for first in the AFC. The Steelers (10-7 SU, 11-6 ATS) finished at plus-33 after honking their last four games.
However, is there really this much difference between these two clubs? Probably not. During their last encounter, Pittsburgh and Baltimore were tied at 17-17 in the middle of the third quarter before the Ravens pulled away.
That was the first double-digit win for either side since the pandemic.
That Week 16 matchup also saw Baltimore WR Zay Flowers catch five passes on eight targets for a team-leading 100 yards. Flowers might not be available this week after he hurt his right knee during last Saturday’s 35-10 victory over the Cleveland Browns (+20 away); head coach John Harbaugh would only say Monday that it’s “not a season-ending injury.”
Why Bet the Moneyline
Because all the cool kids are doing it. The early consensus numbers at BMR show 74% support for Pittsburgh on the point spread, but the full 100% for the moneyline as we go to press. Granted, that probably represents a much smaller sample size of bettors, but early money is sharp money however you slice it.
You’re paying roughly the same price in either case. There are many different ways to generate equivalent NFL moneylines from point spreads and vice versa, but the indefatigable BMR Spread Moneyline Calculator says the Steelers “should” be +446 underdogs if they’re also +10 (–115). That’s with the book collecting 4.5% in hold percentage; they often take more as the moneyline odds get longer, so +430 is a perfectly cromulent price to pay.
The Pick
Here’s the kicker: The Steelers were also 8-1 SU and 7-2 ATS in their other nine games against Baltimore after COVID-19 struck, playoffs included. Here are the quarterbacks who started for Pittsburgh:
- 2020-21: Ben Roethlisberger
- 2022: Mitch Trubisky
- 2023: Kenny Pickett, Mason Rudolph
- 2024: Russell Wilson
That wasn’t prime “Big Ben” Roethlisberger, either.
To be fair, Lamar Jackson didn’t start all these games for Baltimore, but Wilson beat him 18-16 in Week 11 despite posting a 67.5 passer rating, so he doesn’t necessarily have to play like an MVP to get the win this Saturday. Throw in the prospect of light snow according to AccuWeather’s long-range forecast, and you get a tasty recipe for the kind of chaos Pittsburgh thrives on.
Bet accordingly.
NFL Pick: Steelers ML (+430) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
