NCAAF Pick: Over 42 (-105) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
Notre Dame and Oregon State will be trotting out new quarterbacks for their Sun Bowl matchup, and our handicapper at the main offshore sportsbooks believes they will show off to break the total on the NCAAF odds.
Oregon State Beavers vs. Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Friday, November 29, 2023 – 02:00 PM ET at Sun Bowl
Bettors who got in on Oregon State when online sportsbooks first released numbers for this year’s Sun Bowl have to be feeling pretty good about their chances of returning to the pay window.
Those who jumped on Notre Dame? Not so much.
Line Drops 4 Points From Opener
Ranked No. 16 in the CFP, the Fighting Irish first went out as whopping 10½-point favorites over the No. 19 Beavers. That was before Notre Dame took a massive hit with players opting out to begin their preparations for the NFL Draft.
In total, a half-dozen Notre Dame starters have opted out of performing in the Sun Bowl, including quarterback Sam Hartman. Those subtractions sent the spread tumbling to 6½, with the total following suit by plunging to 42-43 after opening 4 points higher.
Oregon State earned the invite following an 8-4 season (6-6 ATS & O/U) that saw the Beavers ranked as high as 11th in the AP. Notre Dame went 9-3 SU and ATS on the year, and 8-4 O/U.
Coaching Staff Shakeup in Corvallis
It’s not like Oregon State is arriving in El Paso intact from its fine season, either. A combination of the transfer portal and staff changes hit the Beavers following their season finale loss to rival Oregon.
First was the resignation of head coach Jonathan Smith, who left Corvallis for East Lansing after being hired by Michigan State. Smith is taking a few assistants with him.
One former assistant staying is Kefense Hynson, who was tabbed the interim head coach and will guide the Beavers in the bowl. Oregon State has named former defensive coordinator Trent Bray as its new head coach, and Hynson is expected to remain with the Beavers.
Oregon State also lost its top two quarterbacks, DJ Uiagalelei and Aidan Chiles, to the transfer portal. Uiagalelei threw for more than 2,600 yards and 21 scores this season, and it leaves Ben Gulbranson under center for the Sun Bowl.
Top tailback Damien Martinez was suspended following a DUI arrest, but that suspension has since been lifted. Martinez ran for 1,185 yards this year, second in the Pac-12 to Cal’s Jaydn Ott.
New Faces on Irish Offense
Notre Dame finished eighth in the country averaging 39.1 PPG, and Hartman was a big reason why the Fighting Irish not only found the end zone so frequently, but also made college football bettors smile by beating the NCAAF odds.
He also wasn’t the only loss the Fighting Irish suffered on the offensive side of the ball where head coach Marcus Freeman and OC Gerad Parker are plugging some major holes. Leading rusher Audric Estime (1,341 yds, 18 TD) has also opted out, along with starting tackles Joe Alt and Blake Fisher.
The loss of Alt and Fisher on the offensive line really stings. They were part of a front wall that allowed just 14 sacks on the year, tied for 12th-fewest in the country, and the O-line already was dealing with injuries to center Zeke Correll and guard Rocco Spindler.
On the defensive side, cornerback and team captain Cam Hart is also leaving Notre Dame, as well as starting linebacker Marist Liufau.
Head-to-Head & Bowl History
This will be the third meeting between the Beavers and Fighting Irish, with bowl matchups also accounting for the previous two. Oregon State popped Notre Dame 41-9 in the 2001 Fiesta Bowl, exploding for 29 points in the third quarter to easily cover as 3-point chalk.
The Beavers got the drama out of the way early a few years later at the 2004 Insight Bowl, scoring the game’s first 21 points on their way to a 38-21 triumph.
This will be the third consecutive year for Oregon State to go bowling, losing the 2021 Los Angeles Bowl to Utah State by a 24-13 count as a 6½-point favorite and whipping Florida 30-3 in last year’s Las Vegas Bowl, as a 7½-point chalk. The Beavers have a 12-7 bowl record all-time.
Notre Dame is 20-21 on the bowl circuit, and are making a seventh consecutive appearance. The Fighting Irish won and covered the Gator Bowl last year against South Carolina, a spirited 45-38 contest that easily hopped a 50-point total. That victory halted a 2-bowl losing streak after falling 37-25 to Oklahoma State in the 2022 Fiesta Bowl and 31-14 to Alabama in the 2021 Rose Bowl.
The Pick
According to the weatherman, the long-range forecast calls for a beautiful, sunny afternoon in El Paso, the thermometer just inching into the low-60s. As always, get an update before making your college football pick.
This is one of the lowest totals for this bowl season, and I’ve got confidence in the new QBs on both sides sending the final past the mark.
NCAAF Pick: Over 42 (-105) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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