Super Bowl LIX MVP Odds: Where’s the Value?

The Best Super Bowl LIX MVP Pick: Patrick Mahomes (+115 at Bovada)

Sure, it’s the boring pick to take Patrick Mahomes to win Super Bowl MVP for the 3rd year in a row. But if it’s the right pick, who cares if it’s boring? Mahomes isn’t boring, and the Chiefs have caught wind of the officiating controversy and have even more motivation to show the world they are a historic team with a three-peat win.

But when has a player ever given us fewer reasons to doubt him? Mahomes is unbelievable as an underdog and small favorite with a 16-6 SU record in such games in his career. He terrorizes No. 1 defenses, he’s 17-3 in the playoffs (best 20-game record ever), and he’s won 17 straight games decided by 1 score, another record. He might even lead his 9th game-winning drive of the season in this one, which would be another record.

One of the things you have to do to beat Mahomes is throw off his timing and make him hold the ball for more than 3 seconds per play. The Eagles have struggled to do that all year against quarterbacks, and Mahomes has gotten the ball out his fastest in the last month. He’s also 8-0 against defensive coordinator Vic Fangio, and he’s 14-2 after having a bye week to prepare for games.

Are the Chiefs as good defensively as they were a year ago? No, but they’re better than they were 2 years ago when they beat the Eagles, and they are very hard to score 30 points against now. This shouldn’t be a repeat of 38-35.

It’s hard to picture another Chief taking MVP from Mahomes as he should have his hands on a game with over 200 yards passing, maybe 40 or more rushing as he always uses his legs in these big games and a couple of touchdowns.

That could be enough as long as the Chiefs win. Bet against Mahomes at your own risk. That’s the lesson from the last 7 years.

NFL Pick: Super Bowl LIX MVP – Patrick Mahomes (+115) at Bovada

Patrick Mahomes (+115)

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The Best Value Super Bowl LIX MVP Pick: Jalen Hurts (+300 at Bovada)

If you like the Eagles to win, it’s probably going to come down to Saquon Barkley or Jalen Hurts. Both scored 3 touchdown runs in their last game against Washington, but the Chiefs bring a much better defense to the party.

However, Hurts has gotten a great look at Steve Spagnuolo’s defense as this will be the 4th year in a row he sees it. He’s actually had his most passing yards in any regular-season game (387) and in any playoff game (304) against the Chiefs. He played very well in Super Bowl 57 outside of that fumble on a poor-designed run at midfield.

Hurts led a fourth-quarter comeback against the Chiefs in Arrowhead last season, and let’s not forget he tied the game 2 years ago with his last real drive before the Chiefs burned most of the clock for their winning field goal.

The Eagles are 9-0 when Hurts passes for 200 yards this season. They obviously don’t get there half the time, but this is a matchup where you need to score a fair number of points to win, and the Eagles have great weapons all over the field.

This is Hurts’ revenge game for 2 years ago, and he’s a very solid value for MVP as he could always steal Barkley’s touchdowns with the Tush Push, and unlike Josh Allen, he will execute the play properly against the Chiefs. He’s scored 5 rushing touchdowns against them in the last 2 games.

NFL Pick: Super Bowl LIX MVP – Jalen Hurts (+300) at Bovada

Jalen Hurts (+300)

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Fade: What to Do About Saquon Barkley (+250 at Bovada)

Philadelphia running back Saquon Barkley has the 2nd-highest odds to win Super Bowl MVP (+250 at Bovada) after his incredible season where he’s scored 7 rushing touchdowns of at least 60 yards, easily a single-season record.

The other reason people are loving the pick here is that Sunday is Barkley’s 28th birthday, so that’s just extra motivation to have the greatest game of his career. Of course, the Chiefs have plenty of motivation in their own right in going for the three-peat. They also have a solid run defense that has allowed just 3 rushing touchdowns over 7 yards all season, and one of those was a quarterback (Josh Allen).

The Eagles may also want to lean a little more on Jalen Hurts and their receivers if Steve Spagnuolo loads up to stop the run. If Barkley isn’t popping the big run, his rushing success rate has dropped 10 percentage points this postseason. He can be contained.

Also, no running back has won Super Bowl MVP since Terrell Davis for the 1997 Broncos. We talked about this with Christian McCaffrey last year for the 49ers. The Chiefs caused him to fumble on the opening drive, and despite CMC finishing with 160 total yards and a touchdown, he was an afterthought with the Chiefs winning in overtime.

That’s the other thing. You still have to win the game. Players rushing for 100 yards against the Chiefs are 3-10 since 2019, which is an absurdly bad record. That team is just really hard to beat and doing it by leaning on a back that’s been more boom-or-bust lately doesn’t sound like the best plan.

That’s why I would fade Barkley in favor of Jalen Hurts for this one if you think the Eagles are winning. On the other hand, you could also get better odds than Saquon for MVP if you do Saquon to score 2 touchdowns (+275 at Bovada). The Eagles won’t even have to win the game for that prop to hit.

You could also get better odds with a Player Performance Double at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review) for Saquon to have 2 touchdowns and Eagles +1.5 to hit (+347 at BetOnline).

But I wouldn’t lean in heavily to a Barkley MVP pick.

Longshot: Which Tight End to Trust?

It is surprising that no tight end has ever won Super Bowl MVP given all the times Rob Gronkowski and Travis Kelce, the best to ever do it, were in so many of these games. Alas, they’re still at the mercy of their more popular quarterbacks, and when those guys have a good game, it’s hard to give the award to someone else.

But this could be a big game for the tight ends to try breaking through for the 1st Super Bowl MVP award for the position. Kelce will obviously try to have a big game as Mahomes’ most reliable receiver, but he’d probably need to go well over 100 yards or score multiple touchdowns to do so, and it’s hard to trust the Chiefs’ offense in the red zone enough to think he does that here.

Meanwhile, Dallas Goedert is going up against the defense that allowed the most receiving yards to tight ends this season, and he’s been very good this postseason. He also had 60 yards in Super Bowl 57 against the Chiefs.

You might be wondering how often a tight end goes off in a win over the Mahomes-led Chiefs. It’s not often. In fact, since 2018, only 2 tight ends have had 50 yards and a touchdown in a win over the Chiefs with Mahomes at quarterback:

• Rob Gronkowski had 6 catches for 67 yards and 2 touchdowns in a 31-9 win for Tampa Bay over the Chiefs in Super Bowl 55 (Tom Brady won MVP).
• Dawson Knox had 3 catches for 117 yards and a touchdown in a 38-20 win for the Bills in Arrowhead on Sunday Night Football in 2021 (Josh Allen would have been honored instead with 374 total yards and 4 total touchdowns).

That’s not very promising for Goedert, but here’s a counterpoint. Goedert’s biggest receiving game in his NFL career was when he had 10 catches for 170 yards against the Saints earlier this season in New Orleans, where the Super Bowl is being played.

What if lightning strikes twice in the Superdome and Goedert has a game like Isaiah Likely had for the Ravens in Week 1 (9 catches for 111 yards and a touchdown) against these Chiefs? It’s worth a longshot play at these odds. Some tight end will win a Super Bowl MVP eventually.

NFL Pick: Super Bowl LIX MVP – Dallas Goedert (+7000) at Bovada

Dallas Goedert (+7000)

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Longshot: The Defender to Fill Up the Stat Sheet

Two years ago, I can remember hyping up Haason Reddick for the Eagles to win Super Bowl MVP if he can sack Mahomes multiple times. We know how that turned out on a slippery field as the Eagles struggled to touch Mahomes.

But while it was a very offensive game with a 38-35 score, Nick Bolton scored a touchdown for the defense on that fumble by Jalen Hurts at midfield. That was a big play but too early in the game for MVP consideration.

In looking at this matchup, the Chiefs will have their best edge rusher (George Karlaftis) going up against the great Lane Johnson, so he’s unlikely to get the sacks (3.0+) to win this award. The Eagles’ best defender is Jalen Carter, but Mahomes is usually good at avoiding sacks in big games.

If there’s a defender with long odds to take a shot on, I’m going with Kansas City corner Trent McDuffie. The 3rd-year pro is the team’s best player in the secondary, he’s finally made his first 2 interceptions this season, and Steve Spagnuolo isn’t afraid to use him to rush the passer on the biggest snap of the game as the Bills learned last week and the 49ers learned in last year’s Super Bowl.

McDuffie also has blitzed 15 times in the last 2 meetings with the Eagles, and he technically got credit for forcing Hurts’ fumble in Super Bowl 57. So, imagine a game where he could get a sack, and an interception, and do a good job at limiting A.J. Brown or DeVonta Smith. That might be versatile enough and come in enough big spots to get him an MVP award.

Corners are overdue too.

NFL Pick: Super Bowl LIX MVP – Trent McDuffie (+20000) at Bovada

Trent McDuffie (+20000)

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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.