The NFL season comes down to one last battle—Kansas City vs. Philadelphia, with the Lombardi Trophy on the line in New Orleans. It’s a rematch of Super Bowl LVII, where Harrison Butker’s last-minute field goal sealed the Chiefs’ first of back-to-back championships. Now, the Eagles get their shot at redemption.
Top-rated sportsbooks have released their NFL odds for Super Bowl LIX. BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review) has the Chiefs as 1.5-point favorites and the total is set at 49.
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Sunday, February 09, 2025 – 06:30 PM ET at Caesars Superdome
Neutralize the Blitz
Every quarterback struggles under pressure compared to a clean pocket, but for Jalen Hurts, the drop-off is among the most dramatic in the league. The Chiefs rank 13th in blitz rate, yet defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo has been elite at scheming free rushers since taking over in 2019.
Hurts’ mobility can occasionally extend plays or shake off a tackler, but he’s more of a power runner than a slippery escape artist. His time to throw when pressured was the third-highest in the NFL, yet his efficiency plummeted—his yards per attempt fell from 9.3 to 4.9, while his turnover-worthy throw rate spiked from 1.8% to 5.3%. That’s a glaring issue.
Philadelphia boasts the league’s best offensive line, but Hurts’ 12% sack rate against the blitz and overall struggles under duress make it imperative for the Eagles to build in quick passes and hot reads to neutralize Spagnuolo’s aggressive designs.
Unleash A.J. Brown
Few receivers are as dominant against man coverage as A.J. Brown, and his battle with Trent McDuffie could be the defining matchup of the game. McDuffie played a crucial role in Kansas City’s Super Bowl LVII win and figures to shadow Brown throughout this contest.
The Chiefs rely heavily on man coverage, primarily using Cover 1 alignments while mixing in bracket doubles. Against Hurts, they could pivot to more zone looks to clog passing lanes and limit his rushing ability. Still, there will be moments when McDuffie or Jaylen Watson must go one-on-one with A.J. Brown’s physicality.
The Eagles must capitalize when those opportunities arise. McDuffie is as sticky in coverage as any corner in the league, but he lacks the size and strength to erase Brown entirely. Moving Brown into the slot more often—he’s lined up wide on 82% of snaps this season—could be a way to disrupt Kansas City’s plans.
Control the Run
Kansas City likely won’t rack up gaudy rushing numbers, but the timing of their runs will be pivotal. Philadelphia’s elite run defense can dictate terms, forcing the Chiefs to throw to open up running lanes—a strategy Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes execute as well as anyone.
That said, key moments will arise where Kareem Hunt, Isiah Pacheco, Samaje Perine, or Mahomes himself could extend drives or cash in near the goal line. Every successful ground conversion chips away at the Eagles’ trench dominance. Limiting those timely runs will be critical to keeping control of the game.
