Top NFL Pick: Philadelphia by 1-6 points (+275) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
It looks like another close matchup between Kansas City and Philadelphia, so let’s take advantage with some tasty Super Bowl props from top-rated sportsbooks.
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Sunday, February 09, 2025 – 06:30 PM ET at Caesars Superdome
Making Super Bowl picks here at the ranch used to be so simple: Just take the underdog and the Under. But here comes Kansas City once again to mess things up. The point spread was less than a field goal for all three of their Super Bowl victories, and that’s still the case this Sunday with Philadelphia getting 1.5 points on the NFL odds board at Bovada as we go to press.
Previous Super Bowl Results
Super Bowl Matchups | Betting Lines & Scores | Betting Trends |
---|---|---|
SB LIV | SF 20, KC (–1.5) 31 | Favorite-Under |
SB LVII | KC (+1.5) 38, PHI 35 | Underdog-Over |
SB LVIII | SF 22, KC (+2.5) 25 | Underdog-Over |
We’ll probably go ahead and pound that 2-team parlay anyway this year, given how Kansas City (17-2 SU, 9-10 ATS) has seen their performance level slip somewhat, while Philadelphia (17-3 SU, 13-7 ATS) rides into the Superdome with the top defense in the league. But that’s all prelude to our real story today. Super Bowl props are where it’s at; as you can see above, we’re betting on these two teams to keep it close again this Sunday.
Why Bet Both Sides?
It’s a hedge to some degree, but each of those two Winning Margin props should have some betting value for us. According to the sample at Wizard of Odds, 37% of NFL games end with a winning margin of 0-6 points.
For completeness, yes, Super Bowl LIX cannot end in a tie – but it also can’t be won by more than six points in overtime, so we don’t have to compensate for those rare occasions (0.2%) when the score is even after 60 minutes.
Anyway, 37% works out to a fair price of +170 (no juice) using the superb BMR Odds Converter. Do you see where this is going now? If we bet both these props and the Big Game is decided by 1-6 points, our payout will be +160 if K.C. wins, and +175 if Philly prevails.
Super Bowl LIX looks a lot closer than the average NFL game on paper. Granted, the league’s games as a whole have gotten closer in recent years, so maybe that sample at Wizard of Odds doesn’t quite map to the reality on the ground.
But generally speaking, the average NFL point spread has hovered between 3-10 points since 1980. Sunday’s point spread is well clear of that lower limit. And did we mention these same two teams went to overtime at Super Bowl LVII? Yes, yes we did.
Where’s the Catch?
There is none. I mean, you still have to sign up for an online sportsbook account if you want to bet on the Super Bowl, and there are fees to be paid when you make these financial transactions. But this Winning Margin play isn’t a trap – it merely reflects the amount of betting value you’ll find every year in the Super Bowl props market.
As a rule of thumb, casual fans bet on the things they want to see happen. If you’re cheering for Kansas City this Sunday, you want them to blow the Eagles out of the water, and vice versa.
These will be the most passionate bettors in the marketplace, and in theory, they are making their voices heard by dumping too much money on the larger winning margins, giving the rest of us a bargain price on 0-6 points as the books adjust their NFL lines in response.
The Picks
There are countless other Super Bowl LIX props out there waiting for you to exploit in pretty much the same fashion. We’ll take a closer look at NFL player props in our next award-punting article; hammer those Winning Margin odds in the meantime, and may the prolate spheroid be with you.
NFL Pick: Philadelphia by 1-6 points (+275) at Bovada
NFL Pick: Kansas City by 1-6 points (+260) at Bovada
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.