TCU vs. Utah College Football Week 8 Picks: Offensive Struggles Will Continue for Both Teams

TCU Hits Rock Bottom

If the road loss to SMU wasn’t the lowest point for TCU this season, their 30-19 home defeat to Houston on October 4 might just take that title. Entering the game as a heavy favorite, the Horned Frogs were outplayed in all phases.

TCU turned the ball over four times and allowed 207 rushing yards to a Houston offense led by backup quarterback Zeon Chriss, who broke free for a 71-yard touchdown run against a porous TCU run defense. This defeat dropped the Horned Frogs to 3-3, a disappointment given they faced one of the weaker opponents on their schedule.

Quarterback Josh Hoover, who started the season on a high note, has struggled mightily over the past three games. He has thrown six interceptions and lost three fumbles, as the team’s unreliable running game has left him shouldering the offensive load.

Though Hoover showed early promise, these recent games have highlighted his growing pains. His decision-making has faltered, with several interceptions resulting from late throws or passes that hung in the air too long.

The offensive line has been part of the problem as well, with Hoover being sacked six times recently. Adding to TCU’s struggles, Hoover’s reluctance to run is becoming a glaring issue—he’s recorded -15 rushing yards since last season and only four touchdowns, all in short-yardage situations.

Until he poses a legitimate running threat, opposing defenses will continue to sit back and wait for mistakes.

TCU’s Downward Spiral

TCU’s season has been a steady slide downward. Blowing a 21-point lead at home to UCF wasn’t the bottom. Losing to SMU in front of a national audience wasn’t the floor either.

Now, falling at home to a Houston team with the worst offense in the nation as a 17-point favorite feels like rock bottom—but there are still six more weeks to uncover new lows. Houston entered the game last in FBS in points per game and among the worst in yards per game, but they managed to rack up 361 yards and 30 points at Amon G. Carter Stadium.

TCU’s offense, meanwhile, didn’t pick up a first down until three minutes into the fourth quarter, finishing just 3-for-10 on third down with an average distance of 7.7 yards. Their inability to sustain drives continues to be a key reason they’ve struggled to play winning football.

Utah Falls in Arizona State

In other action, Arizona State upset Utah 27-19 on Friday. Quarterback Cameron Rising returned from a finger injury but was ineffective, throwing three interceptions and completing just 16 of 37 passes for 209 yards.

A leg injury in the first quarter further limited him throughout the game. Rising’s struggles were only part of Utah’s issues, as they managed just one touchdown in seven trips inside Arizona State’s 30-yard line.

Rising threw an interception at the Sun Devils’ 9-yard line, and Utah turned the ball over on downs early in the fourth quarter. Four other trips inside the 30 resulted in field goals, including a 46-yarder by Cole Becker after a penalty wiped out a potential touchdown.

Despite the offensive struggles, Micah Bernard provided a spark for Utah, rushing for 129 yards and a touchdown. However, it wasn’t enough to overcome Arizona State’s defense and Rising’s ineffective night.

Key Matchups

This game promises to be a critical turning point for both programs. TCU is reeling after a series of disheartening performances, while Utah is trying to steady its ship following Friday’s upset loss. Both teams are dealing with offensive struggles, making this matchup one that could easily come down to who can make fewer mistakes.

Josh Hoover vs. Utah’s Defense

Hoover’s early-season flashes have faded, as turnovers and shaky decision-making have plagued the TCU offense in recent weeks. His six interceptions and three fumbles over the last three games paint a picture of a quarterback under siege, both from opposing defenses and from his own inconsistencies.

Utah’s defense, known for its ability to capitalize on offensive mistakes, will be looking to pressure Hoover into making poor decisions. With Hoover’s hesitancy to use his legs to escape pressure, Utah could dial up blitz packages and force him into hurried throws.

For TCU to find success, Hoover must improve his downfield accuracy and avoid the late, floating passes that have hurt him in recent games.

TCU’s Run Defense vs. Micah Bernard

TCU’s inability to stop the run has been a glaring weakness, as they allowed Houston to rush for 207 yards, including a 71-yard touchdown. Utah, with Bernard coming off a 129-yard performance, will likely look to pound the ball on the ground and exploit TCU’s vulnerable front seven.

If Bernard can consistently gain yards on early downs, it will open up the rest of Utah’s offense and take the pressure off quarterback Rising, who is still dealing with injuries. TCU’s defense will need to step up to avoid another long night against a physical running attack.

Cameron Rising vs. TCU’s Secondary

Rising is clearly not at full strength, returning from multiple injuries, including one sustained early in the Arizona State game. His three interceptions last week highlight that he’s not 100%, but TCU’s secondary has been generous to opposing quarterbacks. Rising’s ability to manage the game while avoiding costly turnovers will be key.

If Rising can take advantage of TCU’s struggling secondary without forcing throws, Utah’s offense will have the edge. However, TCU’s defense has the potential to capitalize on Rising’s current limitations, especially if he’s forced into passing situations.

TCU’s Offense vs. Third-Down Efficiency

One of TCU’s biggest issues this season has been their inability to convert on third downs, as shown in their disastrous performance against Houston, where they didn’t pick up a first down until late in the fourth quarter. Utah’s defense thrives on getting teams off the field on third down, and if TCU continues to face long-yardage situations, their offense could sputter again.

TCU must establish some semblance of a running game to avoid putting Hoover in constant third-and-long situations, but that will be a tall task against a Utah defense that excels at stopping the run.

Special Teams and Turnovers

Both teams have had turnover problems in recent weeks, and in a game where offensive success could be hard to come by, special teams and turnovers might be the deciding factor.

Utah has been efficient at forcing interceptions, and with Hoover’s recent struggles, TCU must prioritize ball security. Meanwhile, Utah’s issues converting red-zone opportunities could leave points on the board, keeping this game closer than it should be.

The Pick

This game is likely to be a low-scoring affair, with both teams struggling to consistently move the ball. TCU’s turnover-prone offense against Utah’s opportunistic defense gives the Utes a slight edge. However, Utah’s limitations with a banged-up Rising mean TCU could hang around if they can protect the ball and take advantage of any mistakes by Utah’s offense.

Expect both teams to rely heavily on their ground games, but Utah’s superior ability to control the clock with Bernard will likely tip the scales in their favor in a low-scoring game.

College Football Pick: Under 52 (-110) at Bookmaker

Under 52 (-110)

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