Tennessee vs. Georgia College Football Week 12 Betting Picks

Did Georgia’s Cornerbacks Improve?

While Georgia lost last week 28-10 to Ole Miss, it might seem like the Bulldogs improved in a key respect.

Their pass defense has been problematic primarily thanks to their vulnerable cornerbacks who have unequivocally cost them games, such as when they gave up a late-game bomb to Alabama that put the Crimson Tide ahead for good.

They held Ole Miss quarterback Jaxson Dart, however, to 199 passing yards. Georgia backers will point to this statistic as an indication of improvement, but there are two things to note that are relevant to Saturday’s upcoming game.

• They still allowed Dart to run for 50 yards, thus exhibiting their continued difficulty with containing mobile quarterbacks.
• Ole Miss did not have its top wide receiver, Tre Harris, who easily leads the team in receiving.

In short, I do not find it reasonable to readjust my negative perception of Georgia’s cornerbacks. A competent quarterback, even lowly Mississippi State’s quarterback, can pick on these cornerbacks, especially with a good group of wide receivers.

Tennessee’s Wide Receivers

I like Tennessee’s pass attack in this game because it is well-stocked with future NFL wide receivers:

• Thornton Jr. is arguably the most balanced of the three wide receivers. He has a great combination of size, at 6-5, and speed.
• White is pure speed. His speed allows him to easily gain separation from defensive backs and positions him as a threat to score whenever he has the ball. He is also a great athlete whose vertical is super impressive.
• McCoy is a well-sized receiver who can go up and make a contested catch.

Tennessee’s Improved Pass Protection

When Georgia beat Texas, it relied on Texas quarterback Quinn Ewers having an off day. Georgia’s pass pressure got to Ewers.

The Georgia backer looking to respond to my point about Tennessee’s good wide receivers would point to this game because Texas has good wide receivers and because pass protection was an issue for Tennessee this season. But the key word is “was.”

Recently, Tennessee faced Kentucky, which, as measured by sack rate, has one of the nation’s best pass rushes. Volunteers quarterback Nico Iamaleava was able to complete 28 of 38 passes for 292 yards and one touchdown partly because Kentucky’s pressure was not strong enough to faze him. He was sacked all of two times.

Georgia has had a longstanding problem with turning pressures into sacks. The Bulldogs ranked 57th in sack rate last year and continue to mount a mediocre pass rush that contributes to the mediocrity of their overall pass defense.

Tennessee’s Rush Attack

The Volunteers will put forth a stronger offensive output than Ole Miss did last week against Georgia also because they have a stronger rush attack.

Dylan Sampson is the SEC’s leading rusher. For comparison’s sake, the SEC’s second-leading rusher, Jarquez Hunter of Auburn, ran for 91 yards on seven YPC against Georgia’s defense. Sampson is averaging 5.7 YPC this season. He has run for over 110 yards in every game but one. He poses a constant threat to defenses.

Carson Beck’s Decline

Georgia’s quarterback Carson Beck was a well-respected NFL Draft prospect heading into this season, but he has been suffering from poor decision-making, happy feet, and inaccuracy. Compared to last year, he is markedly less efficient and productive.

Georgia’s quarterback has looked great against Mississippi State’s abysmal defense and against FCS schools. Beck has really struggled against teams that rank top-30 in pass defense. He failed to reach 180 passing yards against Texas’ number-one pass defense or against Kentucky’s 26th-ranked pass defense.

Beck vs. Volunteers

The Volunteers rank slightly above Kentucky in pass defense.

Part of the problem is the departure of star tight end Brock Browers and his lack of chemistry with his current pass-catchers, as well as their overall lack of ability and their mishaps, such as bad routes.

Tennessee has a stingy secondary that features future early-round NFL Draft pick Jermod McCoy. McCoy has two interceptions so far and can absolutely add to this total against a turnover-prone Beck, who has thrown an absurd nine interceptions in his last four games.

The Volunteers’ secondary does have a cheat code: their front seven is talented and deep. Tennessee is one of the best teams at pressuring and sacking quarterbacks thanks to guys like James Pearce Jr., who has 5.5 sacks so far. Moreover, Beck won’t find support from his running game, going against what has been one of the top run defenses all year in large part due to the quality of Tennessee’s front seven.

Takeaway

Tennessee has the competence at quarterback, the quality at wide receiver and the improved strength at the offensive line to thrive against Georgia’s declined defense. Tennessee’s offense also has an elite running back to further support it.

The Bulldogs will fail to keep pace, as their quarterback continues to struggle in various ways and as he fails to find support from his rush attack.

NCAAF Pick: Tennessee +16.5 (-110) at Bovada

Tennessee +16.5 (-110)

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