Tennessee vs. Houston 2025 NCAA Tournament Elite Eight Best Bet

Explaining Tennessee’s Defensive Ranking

Houston is favored as if it were the better team. But oddsmakers are wrong to favor the Cougars. Tennessee is better. Let’s start with its defense.

The Volunteers do rank below Houston in terms of defensive efficiency, but we have to consider why this is the case. Tennessee has allowed high point totals specifically to teams that differ stylistically in that they like to run. So, the Volunteers gave up 76 points at Vanderbilt and over 70 points in both regular season games against Kentucky.

However, those teams rank around 300 spots ahead of Houston in adjusted tempo. That said, Houston is favored partly because Tennessee’s defense ranks lower than Houston’s, but Tennessee’s defense ranks lower for a reason that does not apply to this game.

Tennessee’s Defense Is Stronger

Overall, despite individual hiccups against teams that stylistically differ from Houston, Tennessee’s defense is stronger than Houston’s. This is evident in Tennessee’s superior ability to hold high-level offenses to point totals below their respective regular season averages.

The Volunteers held:

• Florida to 17.8 points below its average per-game point total. 
• Kentucky to 11 points below its average per-game point total.
• Alabama to 15 points below its average per-game point total.
• Auburn to 24 points below its average per-game point total.

Houston’s defense has not accomplished this level of dominance: compared with Tennessee, the Cougars allowed more points to Alabama and way more to Auburn. Excluding overtime, Bama, Auburn and Gonzaga all scored over 70 points against the Cougars.

Top-level offenses perform better against Houston’s defense than they do against Tennessee’s defense as long as they don’t play at a fast tempo, which Tennessee isn’t comfortable with.

Rebounding

Houston also doesn’t deserve to be favored because of its offense. Thus far, the Cougars on offense have relied less on efficiency — differing from Tennessee’s offense — and more on offensive rebounds.

Against Purdue, for example, they were efficient from behind the arc but also converted an abysmal 36.8 percent of their two-point attempts. They did grab 16 offensive rebounds. However, Tennessee ranks 181 spots ahead of Purdue in total rebounds and all of seven spots behind Houston.

The Volunteers have a lot of length — their overall height ranking is held back by their small point guard — and cancel out Houston’s strength in offensive rebounding in addition to ranking better in defensive rebounding rate.

The Cougars will not have an edge in offensive rebounding against a Tennessee team that ranks 20th in offensive rebounding rate. So, we get in Tennessee a team that has been more efficient on offense, while the Cougars won’t be able to use offensive rebounding to compensate for their inferior efficiency.

Stopping Houston’s Key Scorers

Houston’s top shot-taker is easily LJ Cryer. Down low, the Cougars like to lean on J’Wan Roberts. And Tennessee has the antidote for both key players.

The Volunteers have an elite perimeter defense, ranking third at limiting opposing three-point percentage — which is important because Houston is monumentally better at making threes than at scoring inside, where the Cougars rank 281st in two-point percentage.

Their elite perimeter defenders include Jahmai Mashack, whose length helps him rank 73rd in steal rate, and Zakai Zeigler, who has now been named SEC Defensive Player of the Year in two consecutive seasons.

Cryer certainly can go off against lower-quality defenders, but Tennessee has the best perimeter defenders to limit him with. The Volunteers also have Felix Okpara down low, who is an elite shot-blocker and in general a top-level interior defender and rim-protector. He ranks 37th in block rate.

Outlook for Tennessee’s Offense

Houston lacks Tennessee’s ability to defend without fouling and is not as good at limiting opposing three-point efficiency. So, San Diego State got to the foul line a lot and scored 65 points in regulation against the Cougars. Baylor used efficient shooting and free throws to score 65 points against the Cougars.

Tennessee can shoot and get to the foul line. Chaz Lanier is especially efficient from deep, with his 40.5 three-point conversion rate. Zeigler in particular excels at drawing fouls. The Volunteers might not be as efficient from deep as Baylor or as good at drawing fouls as San Diego State, but they do have an excellent offense — they rank 17th in offensive efficiency.

So, they are not as good offensively as the Auburn and Gonzaga teams that scored over 70 points against Houston, but they are very good offensively and are built to exploit Houston’s defensive weaknesses.

I see Tennessee scoring in the upper 60s, which will easily be enough to win.

Takeaway

In the underdog Volunteers we get the better overall offense and the better overall defense. On offense, the Volunteers are more efficient and are too good on the glass to allow Houston’s offense to compensate for its inefficiency.

On defense, the Volunteers have outperformed Houston against top-level defenses. The Volunteers rank lower than Houston’s only because they’ve struggled with up-tempo teams, which doesn’t matter here because Houston prefers a snail’s pace.

Tennessee has the weapons in its perimeter defenders and top-level rim-protector to lock down Houston’s top scorers. On offense, the Volunteers will continue being efficient, thriving especially from deep and at the free throw line.

I’m seeing a 67-59 win for Tennessee here.

NCAAB Pick: Tennessee +3 (-112) at BetOnline

Tennessee +3 (-112)

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