Tennessee vs. Oklahoma College Football Week 4 Betting Picks: Can the Sooners Shut Down the Vols?

Oklahoma’s Troublesome Offensive Line

During the offseason, Oklahoma had to rebuild its offensive line almost completely. Two offensive linemen were drafted; two became undrafted free agents; and two transferred.

With zero returning starters, the offensive line was always going to need time to develop: the right pieces for the starting lineup had to be found, and they needed time to develop and gel together. Injuries at the start of the season have delayed this process and made it more difficult.

The Sooners, despite facing low-profile non-SEC competition so far, owe their offensive decline largely to the decline in their offensive line. Whereas they ranked third with over 500 yards per game last season, they rank 93rd with 325 yards per game this year.

Tennessee’s Powerful Defensive Line

Tennessee has the defensive line to exploit Oklahoma’s vulnerable offensive line.

James Pearce Jr., a Preseason All-SEC selection and PFF’s selection for top returning edge rusher, is the biggest name. But guys like former four-star recruit Bryson Eason, who earned tremendous praise during the offseason, are likewise expected to be future NFL Draft selections.

This group is also deep, with someone like the well-sized and surprisingly quick Omarr Norman-Lott, who had 5.5 sacks last year, listed as a backup.

No Escape for Oklahoma

Largely because of its defensive line, Tennessee’s defense has held its first three opponents to a combined total of six points – NC State managed a rare pick-six. Opposing quarterbacks face limited time to throw. Running backs are getting rocked behind the line of scrimmage.

The Volunteers have played one Power Four team so far, NC State. They held NC State to 143 total yards of offense.

Oklahoma quarterback Jackson Arnold is already struggling to manage five yards per pass attempt, and the ground game is statistically mediocre. The Sooners will now have to move from facing the likes of unranked Tulane to dealing with Tennessee.

To Make Matters Worse

Arnold will not be able to rely on his rushing attack, but the hope before this season was that he’d at least be able to rely on a talented group of pass-catchers. Injuries, however, have targeted this group:

• OU’s top returner at wide receiver, Nic Anderson, has yet to return.
• Andrel Anthony, who was leading his team in receiving yards when healthy last year, suffered a season-ending injury that he has struggled to return from. He has one catch for four years so far.
• Moreover, Jalil Farooq, who amassed 694 receiving yards last year, has faced the same injury-induced struggles, limiting him to one catch this season.

It’s a conceptual inevitability that teams have weaknesses. With Tennessee’s prowess up front, its secondary was always going to be a relative weakness heading into the season.

For an “over” play or a play on Oklahoma, you would want to see a team that at the very least has a stable and solid group of wide receivers. Injuries, however, have derailed this prospect from taking shape.

Will Tennessee’s Offense Perform Better?

Can we expect Tennessee’s offense to threaten the “under” or to justify a play on the Volunteers? This will be a tough situation for Tennessee’s quarterback, Nico Iamaleava. He is a freshman, and Saturday’s game will be his first true road test.

Tennessee being ranked as highly as it is, he will face a raucous environment with which nothing he has encountered so far will compare.

Even if he possessed veteran composure and handled the environment well, he still has not shown the quality of play that would justify positive expectations for him heading into this matchup. Against the one remotely notable opponent that he’s faced so far, NC State, he threw two interceptions and wasn’t particularly productive with his arm.

Oklahoma’s Run Defense

Tennessee is a run-heavy group that, for its running, primarily wants to rely on running back Dylan Sampson.

Sampson has been thrashing Tennessee’s soft competition thus far – NC State had lost its defensive leader in the front seven in the offseason – but finally faces a difficult test in Oklahoma.

The Sooners, led by defensive-minded head coach Brent Venables – who was arguably the nation’s top defensive coordinator when previously at Clemson – have improved tremendously against the run.

This improvement is evident in their repeated ability to limit mobile quarterbacks and to limit opposing rush yards in general. They jumped about 60 spots last year in rush defense and, this year, continue to build on the promise created by their strength up front.

A Stiff Challenge

On the defensive line, they feature Gracen Halton, whose strong run defense grades attest to his abilities as a run stopper. In Week 2, he was also SEC Co-Defensive Lineman of the Week.

At linebacker, they can rely on tackling machine Danny Stutsman, a preseason selection for the Walter Camp Award watchlist.

Tennessee’s offensive line is returning a lot of players from a group that elicited worries throughout last season, with its problematic performance against teams like Florida, and will now face easily its toughest test so far this season from OU’s front seven.

Oklahoma’s Efficient Pass Defense

With Iamaleava unable to lean on his team’s rush attack, he’ll have to magically improve as a passer.

Looking at statistics from last season, Oklahoma did allow a lot of passing yards. But this is trivially true. Oklahoma played in a notoriously pass-heavy conference, with opponents like TCU and Oklahoma State ranking very highly in pass-play percentage.

Any team will allow more passing yards when its opponent passes a lot. Other statistics will reveal how well OU’s pass defense performed. Impressively, the Sooners ranked 13th at limiting opposing passer rating.

They returned their top four cornerbacks from this position group of thriving performers last year. They also got a valuable transfer from San Diego State in Dez Malone, who makes great use of his length and athleticism to amass pass breakups.

Iamaleava will struggle to pass against this group.

Takeaway

Both teams have been known in recent history for having powerful offenses. But, as offseason practices suggested would be the case, Oklahoma is relying primarily on its defense.

The Sooners’ defense is a well-rounded group that will finally pose a challenge to a previously untested Tennessee offense, whose freshman quarterback will struggle to throw the ball and, behind a continually questionable offensive line, will stop being able to lean on his team’s rush attack.

Meanwhile, Oklahoma’s offense will be eaten alive by Tennessee’s defensive line, which will stifle the Sooners’ rush attack and, aided by OU’s unique injury-related problems at wide receiver, keep the Sooners’ quarterback from gaining any sort of rhythm.

NCAAF Pick: Under 58 (-110) at BetOnline

Under 58 (-110)

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