Texans vs. Cowboys Monday Night Football Picks: Bet on America’s Team

The Cowboys Have Hit Rock Bottom

There was a time when the Dallas Cowboys could do no wrong. Everyone loved two-time Super Bowl-winning head coach Tom Landry, the behatted icon of the franchise since its inception in 1960. “America’s Team,” they called dem ‘Boys.

Then Jerry Jones came along. The former offensive lineman at Arkansas may know a thing or two about football, and he may even be the driving force behind the NFL’s larger success over the past 30 years. But the instant Jones bought the Cowboys in 1989 and fired Landry, all was lost. This is not America – this is Jerry World.

No wonder everyone’s dancing on Dallas’s grave now that their 2024 campaign is six feet under. The Cowboys are 3-6 SU and 2-6-1 ATS heading into their Monday Night Football matchup with the Houston Texans (6-4 SU, 4-5-1 ATS), the top team in the AFC South. QB Dak Prescott (hamstring) is out for the season. Head coach Mike McCarthy appears to be losing the locker room. Stick a fork in their turducken; they’re done.

All of which makes Dallas one of the top value picks on the Week 11 NFL odds board. The Texans are laying 7.5 points at Heritage Sports as we go to press, clearing the magic number 7 after opening as 6-point road faves. This is no longer the plucky, undervalued “regional” market team that won everyone over last year. Join us, as we take a look at what makes Houston the wrong choice for your Monday Night Football picks.

What Happened to the Texans?

They lost WR Nico Collins to a hamstring injury in Week 5. Houston was 4-1 with their top wideout in uniform; since he’s been gone, they’re 2-3, blowing leads and looking generally out of sorts.

Collins was cleared for practice last week and was a game-time decision for their Sunday Night Football tilt with the Detroit Lions (-4 away), but ultimately didn’t play in what turned into a 26-23 loss. It’s very likely Collins will take the field Monday with no snap count or other limitation.

Again, there goes Houston’s betting value. The Texans were 3-2 ATS while Collins was away, and 1-3-1 ATS before that. Collins may have been the NFL’s leading receiver (567 yards in five games) when he went down, but wideout is a somewhat fungible position in football; WR Tank Dell (68.5 grade at Pro Football Focus) has performed reasonably well in Collins’s absence.

Note that WR Stefon Diggs remains on injured reserve with a torn ACL and isn’t expected back in 2024. Dell should slide into that No. 2 spot just fine, but the betting market might be a bit optimistic when it comes to Houston’s offense this Monday, especially with Collins appearing in his first game after a long layoff with a bad hammy.

The Pick

Now that we’ve identified Houston as fade-worthy, we have to take another look at the Cowboys to make sure we’re actually getting some value beyond just clearing the magic 7. This is definitely a “buy-low” commodity after they got spanked 34-6 by the Philadelphia Eagles (-7), also at AT&T Stadium, in their first game this year with QB Cooper Rush at the controls instead of Prescott.

The fundamentals might be there from a handicapping standpoint, but the situation on the ground with McCarthy is bad enough that we’re going to recommend down-sizing your Monday Night Football bets this week. Take a fun-sized flier on America’s Team at +7.5 or longer, and may the prolate spheroid be with you.

NFL Pick: Cowboys +7.5 (-108) at Heritage Sports

Cowboys +7.5 (-108)

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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.