Texans vs. Chiefs AFC Divisional Round Pick: Kansas City Ready to Silence the Doubters

Misleading Narrative

Many folks like the Texans because they think that the Chiefs are not the type of team to blow opponents out. However, this narrative lost validity in the last games of the regular season in which the Chiefs, before Week 18 when they played their backups, beat:

• The Browns by 14.
• The Texans by 8.
• The Steelers by 19.

Playoff Opener Trend

Kansas City can be counted on especially in its playoff-opener to blow its opponent out.

Since Patrick Mahomes became a Chief, Kansas City beat its first playoff opponent by over two touchdowns four of six times. In the two exceptions, Mahomes even sustained a debilitating injury during the game.

Rematch With Houston

The spread might, despite the above trend, seem perfectly fair because Kansas City, in Week 16, beat the Texans by 8. However, Houston wide receiver Tank Dell was responsible for 98 of quarterback CJ Stroud’s 244 passing yards and for one of his two passing touchdowns.

Without Dell, Houston’s pass attack becomes significantly easier for Kansas City’s defense to contain.

Kansas City’s Pass Defense

The Chiefs are able to limit the opposing team’s top wide receiver in large part because they have an All-Pro cornerback in Trent McDuffie.

When they beat Houston, they mostly limited Nico Collins to 60 receiving yards and short gains — Collins averaged 8.6 yards per catch in that game, whereas in the entire regular season, he averaged 14.8 yards per catch and amassed 1,006 receiving yards in twelve games.

Subsequently, they held Pittsburgh’s top wide receiver George Pickens to 50 receiving yards, one of his lowest receiving totals of the year.

Collins will need to have a big game in this rematch, but he won’t have one facing the likes of McDuffie. Without Dell, or Stefon Diggs for that matter, Stroud lacks alternative weapons.

Stroud Under Pressure

Under Steve Spagnuolo, who is arguably the NFL’s best defensive coordinator, Kansas City loves to blitz and excels at applying pressure. They blitz at the fourth-highest rate and pressure the opposing quarterback with the fifth-highest frequency.

Spagnuolo is famous for dialing up creative blitzes, so Stroud will be under pressure a lot, especially behind an offensive line that does one of the worst jobs at limiting sacks.

In terms of DVOA, Stroud has been one of the worst quarterbacks this year against the blitz. He struggles under pressure, as evident in the fact that he ranks 27th in completion percentage under pressure.

Because of his struggles, Houston’s defense will be on the field a lot.

Houston’s Overrated Defense

The Texans’ defense is getting a lot of love after its playoff-opening performance. But they faced a team that lays a lot of clunkers: the Chargers failed to exceed 17 points against both Atlanta and Tampa Bay, for example.

They locked down quarterback Justin Herbert, who succumbed to Houston’s pressure because he is not a characteristically very elusive quarterback. He is also not good in the postseason.

Houston’s defense is overrated because elusive quarterbacks are, more than being able to merely avoid the catastrophe that Herbert suffered, able to have great success. Indianapolis’ Anthony Richardson, who is a terrible passer but a great runner, had one of his best games of the season at home against Houston when he helped his Colts score 27 points.

Lamar Jackson, another very mobile quarterback, helped Baltimore score 31 points against the Texans. And when Mahomes-led Kansas City scored 27 points in Week 16 against the Texans, they were on their way to scoring another touchdown. They kneeled-out the game on Houston’s 13 yard-line.

Mahomes is known for his elusiveness, for being a play-maker who makes highlights happen when plays break down outside the pocket. He is just the sort of quarterback that Houston does not want to see.

Kansas City’s Improved Offense

The Chiefs are improving on offense, having scored 27 against Houston and 29 against Pittsburgh in their last two games before they played backups in Week 18, because they made the wide receiver position a strength.

The talent was always there:

• Xavier Worthy is an extremely fast wide receiver who was drafted in the first round for good reason.
• DeAndre Hopkins is a five-time All-Pro selection who is a recent acquisition from the Titans.

However, as was the case with Rashee Rice last year, wide receivers need time to gain chemistry with Mahomes. This is because they have to learn where to run when plays break down so that Mahomes can find them. Of course, he can always find his favorite target, Travis Kelce. But now he has a lot of other options.

With Mahomes extending plays and having multiple good targets available to him, Kansas City is able to score around 30 points against Houston’s defense.

Takeaway

Kansas City is rounding into top form. Now the Chiefs have their playoff opener, where they annually flex their muscles.

Expect another Chiefs win by more than two touchdowns, as the elusiveness of their elite quarterback combined with his plethora of effective targets leads to a high-scoring output.

On the other side, CJ Stroud will struggle against Kansas City’s elite cornerback and disruptive pressure.

NFL Pick: Chiefs -8 (-110) at BetOnline

Chiefs -8 (-110)

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