Texans vs. Chiefs NFL Week 16 Picks: Kansas City Is the Better Team

Houston Did Enough to Beat Miami

Nico Collins caught two touchdown passes, and the Houston defense forced four turnovers, including a pair of interceptions in the fourth quarter by Derek Stingley, to secure a 20-12 victory over the Miami Dolphins on Sunday.

Collins hauled in a six-yard touchdown in the second quarter and added another six-yard scoring grab in the third, extending Houston’s lead to 20-6. The second touchdown was set up by a 35-yard run from Dare Ogunbowale on a cleverly executed fake punt.

C.J. Stroud delivered an efficient performance, completing 18 of 26 passes for 131 yards and two touchdowns. Meanwhile, Joe Mixon struggled on the ground, managing just 23 rushing yards on 12 attempts after taking a hard hit early in the game, though he added five catches for 33 yards.

Kansas City Outlasted Cleveland

Mahomes threw two touchdown passes before exiting with a fourth-quarter right ankle injury, while Xavier Worthy added a rushing touchdown as the Kansas City Chiefs cruised to a 21-7 win over the mistake-prone Cleveland Browns on Sunday.

Mahomes connected with Juju Smith-Schuster and Noah Gray for first-half scores, helping Kansas City build a commanding 21-0 lead before enduring a sloppy second half. The Chiefs, who have relied on late-game heroics for much of the season, finally earned a relatively comfortable win despite their offensive struggles in the closing stages.

Mahomes completed 19 of 38 passes for 159 yards before leaving the game after his ankle was rolled up on during a tackle. Carson Wentz stepped in to finish the final 5:23. On the ground, Kareem Hunt and Isiah Pacheco combined for 77 yards on 26 carries.

Postgame, Mahomes reassured reporters that X-rays were negative and said he would have pushed to stay in if Cleveland had closed the gap to one score.

Key Matchups

The Texans rely on a balanced attack led by Stroud’s efficient passing game and timely contributions from their special teams and defense.

Meanwhile, the Chiefs are seeking to maintain their momentum as defending champions but must contend with questions surrounding Mahomes’ health and their ability to protect him from Houston’s aggressive secondary.

C.J. Stroud vs. Chiefs’ Defense

Stroud’s ability to spread the ball effectively and make smart decisions will be tested against Kansas City’s pass rush. While Stroud only threw for 131 yards in his last game, his precision—completing 69% of his passes—has been a strength. If he can replicate his efficiency and take advantage of short fields provided by turnovers or special teams, Houston can keep pace.

However, Kansas City’s defense thrives on creating pressure and forcing hurried throws, which could disrupt Stroud’s rhythm.

Houston’s Opportunistic Defense vs. Patrick Mahomes

Houston’s secondary, led by Stingley, has proven to be a game-changing unit with timely interceptions and forced turnovers. Stingley’s two picks against Miami in the fourth quarter last week highlight the Texans’ ability to clamp down in high-pressure moments.

Mahomes, who completed less than 50% of his passes last week, will need to avoid costly mistakes. If Mahomes is hampered by his recent injury, the Texans’ defense could capitalize with aggressive blitz packages and tight coverage.

Chiefs’ Rushing Duo vs. Texans’ Front Seven

Kansas City’s ground game, led by Hunt and Pacheco, has been steady but unspectacular, combining for 77 yards on 26 carries in their last outing. Against Houston’s front seven, which hasn’t been dominant but has shown discipline in key situations, the Chiefs may need to lean on the run to avoid putting too much strain on Mahomes.

However, if Houston can limit early rushing success, Kansas City could become one-dimensional, putting more pressure on Mahomes to deliver big plays.

Special Teams and Turnovers

Houston’s trickery on special teams, like Ogunbowale’s 35-yard run on a fake punt, adds an X-factor that Kansas City must prepare for.

Meanwhile, the Chiefs’ ability to capitalize on mistakes—whether it’s an interception or a forced fumble—has been critical to their success this season. This matchup could swing on one or two pivotal plays in the kicking game or a timely turnover deep in enemy territory.

The Pick

This game will be a chess match between Houston’s defensive playmaking and Kansas City’s ability to manage adversity. If Mahomes is fully healthy, the Chiefs have the advantage with their explosiveness on offense and experience in high-stakes situations.

However, Houston’s defense and Stroud’s efficiency could keep them in the game, especially if turnovers and special teams plays tilt the field in their favor.

Ultimately, Kansas City’s pedigree and ability to close out tight games should give them the edge. Mahomes’ knack for making clutch plays, even at less than 100%, will likely be the difference in a hard-fought contest. And if Mahomes is out, I still see the Chiefs keeping the game close with Wentz under center.

NFL Pick: Chiefs +3 (-122) at BetOnline

Chiefs +3 (-122)

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