Texas Tech vs. Florida March Madness Elite Eight Best Bets

While Florida is probably legitimately one of the two best teams in the country, we expect the Gators to at least face a scare on Saturday, if not get shocked outright. That is because Texas Tech can slow the pace here, and they are also efficient on both ends. This has us believe that both the spread and the total are inflated in this spot, especially the latter. Thus, we are backing both the Under and the Aggies.

Not Forcing Turnovers Hurts

Florida is now 33-4 overall, which is what happens when you rank second in the country in offensive efficiency and ninth in defensive efficiency. That makes them one of two teams in the nation being Top 10 in both efficiencies, with the other one, as you would expect, being #1 Duke.

With that said, the Gators have had slow starts in each of the last two games, not pulling away until very late vs. Connecticut in the second round and then leading Maryland by only two points at the half in the Sweet 16. Well, a similar lackluster beginning would be more dangerous here against a similarly well-balanced Red Raiders team the does not figure to go away.

And while Florida grades out extremely well in most Kenpom components and is not “red” in any of them, there is one key component where they are only neutral. Unfortunately, that may be the most important component in this game in turnover percentage forced, where the Gators only rank 193rd. The reason that not applying much pressure is so vital here is because it should allow Texas Tech to control the tempo.

Slow It Down

Tech is 28-8, and those of you that have been following us may know that we felt the Red Raiders were an underrated darkhorse to win it all before this tournament started. They are still the second highest ranked Big 12 team in Kenpom at ninth overall behind only top seeded Houston. Moreover, it was Texas Tech that handed the Cougars their only conference loss all season, and that was in Houston!

Furthermore, the Raiders are not far behind the Gators in offensive efficiency, ranking fifth, and while they are not quite at Florida’s efficiency level defensively, their 38th ranking is still very good.

But most critically, we expect Texas Tech to win the Tempo War here. You see, the Gators like to run more while ranking 62nd in Tempo Rating while the Red Raiders prefer a plodding pace ranking 268th. This is where Florida not forcing many turnovers comes into play, as we expect the slower pace to prevail.

Best Bet Total