Texas vs. Michigan College Football Week 2 Preview and Prediction

In college football, there is the SEC, and there is everyone else. Now that the remaining Power 4 conferences have realigned themselves nationally instead of regionally, poaching each other’s best programs and sucking the Pac-12 dry, the pecking order is clear: SEC rules, everyone else drools.

Yes, even the Big Ten. The most storied conference on the NCAAF odds board is bigger and badder than ever with the arrival of USC, UCLA, Oregon, and Washington from the Left Coast – but they still have to play second fiddle to the SEC, which tore the heart and soul out of the Big 12 by getting Texas and Oklahoma to defect.

The college football betting market has taken notice. The Longhorns opened as 4.5-point road favorites for Saturday’s Week 2 matchup with the Michigan Wolverines; as we go to press, Texas are 7-point faves at Heritage Sports. Early money is sharp money, right?

What Makes the SEC So Good?

Money, in large quantities. You may have seen last Saturday’s report in The New York Times about the “Black Book” expected annual earnings for U.S. college athletes – you’ll definitely want to check it out if you haven’t. Here’s how much money the starters in each of the Power 4 football conferences are supposed to be making this year:

• SEC: $14.4 million
• Big Ten: $5.2 million
• ACC: $4.6 million
• Big 12: $3.3 million

This is mind-blowing. Granted, Texas has over a third of that $14.4 mil tied up in quarterbacks Quinn Ewers ($1.7 million) and Arch Manning ($3.1 million). But your average starting offensive lineman can expect to make $780,000 in the SEC, compared to around $300,000 in the Big Ten. That’ll buy a lot of No. 2 pencils.

Can the Longhorns Make the Leap?

Texas hasn’t just landed here off the turnip truck. The Longhorns (along with Oklahoma) announced way back in 2021 that they were SEC-bound; in February 2023, the two Red River rivals paid a combined $100 million to leave the Big 12 a year early.

All that time, Steve Sarkisian has been building a powerhouse. The reigning Big 12 Coach of the Year was hired in ‘21 to make the Longhorns SEC-worthy, and the results have been impressive thus far; Texas is coming off a 12-1 season (7-5-1 ATS) and a trip to the College Football Playoff, although they lost the Sugar Bowl 37-31 to Washington (+3.5 at the Superdome).

Now that they’re officially in the SEC, Sarkisian and the Longhorns have attracted even more talent. They’ve got an incredible 1-2 punch at quarterback, protected by one of the better offensive lines in college, and they’ll be throwing at quality transfers like Isaiah Bond (Alabama) and Silas Bolden (Oregon State). The Horns’ defense should also remain stout with edge rusher Trey Moore coming over from Texas-San Antonio.

Did Michigan Cheat?

I take it you’ve been watching Netflix. There’s a documentary up about last year’s sign-stealing scandal, and again, it’s worth checking out.

The NCAA investigation is still ongoing; maybe there were some improprieties, but my takeaway for now is that Michigan successfully closed a pre-existing information gap en route to last year’s championship. They’re unlikely to overlook that part of their program again, even if Sherrone Moore has replaced Jim Harbaugh as head coach.

Moore was Michigan’s co-offensive co-ordinator and offensive line coach under Harbaugh, and he was under the cans for four games last year while Harbaugh was suspended. It should be a relatively smooth transition with Moore and several other Harbaugh acolytes remaining in Ann Arbor.

The Pick

If only it mattered. Fading Michigan at the open would obviously have been preferable, but even at –7 on the college football odds board, Texas might have some value in these early days of the SEC’s hostile takeover. Bet accordingly.

NCAAF Pick: Texas -7 (-103) at Heritage Sports

Texas -7 (-103)

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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.