Thunder vs. Trail Blazers NBA Best Bets: Don’t Be Surprised By Portland Today

A Word About Trends

Trends are often the lazy bettor’s favorite resource. They are easy to find and offer a sense that a specific wager is justified. This is not to say that we should not look for trends.

The key is to be discerning. We should look for why certain trends exist and figure out if we ought to expect them to continue. 

Examining an Attractive-Looking Trend

Thunder backers will want to say that the Thunder are 6-1 SU after a loss and that they scored 120 or more points in five of those games. But before you rush to bet on the Thunder and the Thunder team total “over,” we have to examine this trend.

First of all, the Thunder are already winning 81 percent of their games. This bounce-back trend points to a mere four percent win increase — six out of seven is 85 percent. This alone refutes the justification for a play on the Thunder on the basis of the fact that they are coming off a loss. Four percent is negligible.

Four percent must appear all the more negligible when you consider that two of Oklahoma City’s bounce-back wins came against two of the NBA’s worst teams, Utah and Brooklyn, whom they surely would have beaten even if they weren’t coming off a loss.

As for Oklahoma City’s point total trend in bounce-back spots, we can’t assign unthinking and automatic faith in the continuation of this trend. This trend has relied on Chet Holmgren’s productivity, on Isaiah Joe having extremely strong performances from behind the arc, and on the low quality of opposing defenses.

But Holmgren is injured. Joe is coming off an incredible three-point shooting performance, so he is primed to fall back down to Earth, as when he followed an incredible three-point shooting output on January 10 by making one of six three-point attempts on January 12. Portland’s defense, moreover, has lately exhibited excellent quality.

Portland’s Defense-Led Win Streak

The Trail Blazers enter today’s game having won their last four games. They are winning games primarily with their defense: they held Chicago to 102 points, Miami to 107 points, Orlando to 79 points, and Charlotte to 97 points.

It is not a coincidence that in Portland’s two best defensive performances — its last two games, against Orlando and Charlotte — Deandre Ayton did not play. Ayton is nowhere near the defender that Donovan Clingan is. Clingan’s defensive rating is 10.1 points better.

His awareness and his length make him an immense presence in the interior, where he flexes his shot-blocking ability thanks to his size and timing.

Portland’s Transition Defense

Clingan also contributes to Portland’s improved transition defense. During their ongoing win streak, the Trail Blazers held a Chicago offense that relies more than every other NBA team but one on scoring in transition to 102 points.

Portland’s ability to limit a transition-heavy offense is important because Oklahoma City has such an offense, ranking but four spots behind Chicago in transition play frequency.

Portland’s Rim Protection

In the half-court, Portland fields multiple effective point-of-attack defenders, such as criminally underrated but highly graded guard Toumani Camara who is a verifiable pest for opposing ball-handlers. With the likes of Camara relieving him of point-of-attack defense duties, Jerami Grant is able to focus on his best quality.

Specifically, Grant excels as a help-side defender, as evident in his uptick in block rate this year, as he is able to focus more on this help-side role this year. With Grant and Clingan, Portland features strong rim protectors to complement the likes of Camara.

With their strong rim protection, the Trail Blazers will limit Thunder power forward Jalen Williams, who, like fellow team-leading scorer Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, relies primarily on scoring at the basket.

With Holmgren out and Joe slated to fall back down to Earth, Oklahoma City lacks offensive weapons with a positive outlook today.

Portland Wants to Attack Inside

The Trail Blazers’ scoring weapons, conversely, have a strong outlook today. On offense, Portland primarily wants to score at the basket. They attempt the third-most field goals per game within five feet of the basket.

Look out, among others, for Shaedon Sharpe and Deni Avdija, who are both efficient in this space. They have a great outlook against a Thunder defense that is down both of its top rim protectors. Not only is Holmgren hurt, but Isaiah Hartenstein’s stout paint presence will also be missed today.

Takeaway

Oklahoma City followed a loss by playing Portland once already. On November 20, the Thunder beat the Trail Blazers at home by ten. Without Hartenstein and on the road, they’ll need to perform even better in order to cover the spread. But they face a Portland team that is playing great basketball.

The Trail Blazers, leaning on Clingan, good point-of-attack defenders, and Grant’s help-side defense, boast strong rim protection that will contain Oklahoma City’s top half-court scorers. Portland is also well-equipped to limit Oklahoma City’s transition endeavors.

On offense, Portland wants to attack the rim and will get to do so very effectively against a Thunder defense that is injury-ridden in its rim protection department.

NBA Pick: Trail Blazers +12.5 (-105) at BetOnline

Trail Blazers +12.5 (-105)

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NBA Pick: Thunder Team Total Under 119.5 (-110) at BetOnline

Thunder Team Total Under 119.5 (-110)

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