Tigers vs. Athletics MLB Best Bet: Don’t Get Skuballed

Don’t blame me – it was Billy Beane’s fault. The moneylines on Friday’s MLB odds board are about as tight as they can be as we go to press, partly because it’s very late in the 2024 regular season, and partly because Beane’s Moneyball tactics were so successful, they changed the face of sports betting in the mid-Aughts.

Baseball totals are more fun to bet on anyway. And while we usually steer clear of the Under when facing low totals here at the ranch, Friday’s tilt between the Detroit Tigers (Over 71-65-4 at press time) and Beane’s Oakland Athletics (Under 73-64-3) has some legs to it… I mean, arms. Great skeet hit send.

Who’s Starting for the Tigers?

Tarik Skubal (2.88 xFIP) is on the mound for Detroit, which immediately makes that 7-run total at BetOnline a lot less scary. Skubal is second only to Cleveland’s Emmanuel Clase on the American League Cy Young Predictor board at ESPN, leading the Tigers to a team record of 19-8 (Over 17-10) in his 27 starts thus far.

Yes, that 17-10 Over record is cause for concern – but it also might be why we’re getting a decent price on this Under, with that tasty –105 vigorish. Skubal has allowed two runs or fewer in 20 of his starts, but even then, the Over has been profitable at 12-8, thanks to a combination of low totals and potent Detroit bats.

Wait a tic… “potent Detroit bats”? The Tigers rank No. 19 overall on the hitting WAR charts at FanGraphs, but they seem to come alive when it’s Skubal they’re supporting: 15 runs against Seattle on August 13 (Over 7), and another 13 runs versus the Chicago White Sox on August 24 (Over 7.5). Regression is coming, perhaps.

Who’s Starting for the A’s?

Mitch Spence (4.20 xFIP) gets the duke for Oakland this Friday, and he’s as important to our baseball picks as Skubal. Spence is a big-league rookie after five years in the New York Yankees farm system; Beane scooped up the 6-foot-1 northpaw in the Rule 5 draft, and Spence has been in Oakland’s rotation since May, generating a 6-13 team record with the Over at 10-9.

Again, not the stuff of 5-star locks, but Spence has pitched quite well since he got called up. This will be the first time the Tigers have ever faced Spence, which will be to his advantage; the A’s also have the No. 11-ranked bullpen on the FanGraphs WAR charts, 10 spots ahead of Detroit’s. Good thing for us that Skubal’s a strong candidate to go at least six innings.

What’s the Weather Report?

Clear skies over woebegone Oakland Coliseum with temperatures around 77 degrees at the first pitch and light breezes up the first base line. The humidity should be around 50%. Just another early September evening in the City That Sports Forgot.

While the weather doesn’t hold many promising betting angles for us, the stadium itself is right up our alley. Using their three-year rolling average, the park factors at Baseball Savant rank the Coliseum No. 26 with an overall 97 index, including a mere 82 for home runs. Some of that is the West Coast air; some of that is the expansive foul territory in Oakland.

The Pick

Granted, the entire Coliseum is foul territory. No one will shed a tear when the wrecking ball finally comes, although the A’s did put their stamp on this town after previous stops in Philadelphia and Kansas City. Enjoy them in Oakland while you can, and may the sphere be with you Friday night.

MLB Pick: Under 7 (-105) at BetOnline

Under 7 (-105)

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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.