Tigers vs. Guardians ALDS Game 2 Best Bet: Boyd To Tame Detroit
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LT Profits
- October 7, 2024
MLB Pick: Guardians ML (+117) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)
We are 4-2 thus far in the 2024 MLB Playoffs, which continue with both Game 2s of the ALDS Monday and both Game 3s of the NLDS Tuesday. And we are here with the three plays over the two days we feel have the most betting value at the current MLB odds available on top sportsbooks.
These value bets are based mostly on our proprietary model, which favors a side in the Buckeye State on Monday in the Tigers vs. Guardians matchup.
Check out our MLB World Series betting page for the latest odds, expert insights, and all the info you need to make winning bets this postseason.
If you’re looking for more MLB value picks, check out:
- Royals vs. Yankees ALDS Game 2
- Dodgers vs. Padres NLDS Game 3
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians
Monday, October 07, 2024 – 04:08 PM ET at Progressive Field
While we get that Tarik Skubal of the Tigers is favored to win the AL Cy Young Award, fellow southpaw Matthew Boyd of the Guardians has pitched well since returning from injury. With the Cleveland offense being substantially better against lefties, we are backing the Guardians to upset.
Tough Matchup
Yes, Tarik Skubal is a legitimate Cy Young favorite after tying for the Major League lead in wins going 18-4 while ranking second in ERA (2.39), third in xFIP (2.83), and fifth in strikeout rate (10.69/9). He then got the win while tossing six scoreless innings in his first career playoff start in the Wild Card Series, allowing just four hits with six strikeouts.
However, he was pulled early in that start due to hamstring cramping, though it remains to be seen if that issue lingers. Of greater concern is facing a Cleveland offense that ranked eighth in the majors in wRC+ against left-handed pitchers this season at 114, a figure that rose further to 119 here at home.
Moreover, Tarik allowed a season-high of 10 hits in his only start against the Guardians this season, which came here in Cleveland on July 22nd.
Familiar Opponent
Matthew Boyd had a belated season debut while recovering from elbow surgery, not making his first start until August 13th. However, he earned this start in Game 2 by showing no effects from the injury. He may have gone only 2-2 over eight starts, but he posted a sparkling 2.72 ERA and 3.80 xFIP. He also had an excellent strikeout rate of 10.44/9, validated by a good 13.9% swinging strike rate, and the stint on the injured list may benefit him as his arm is fresh for these playoffs.
Also, let us not forget that Matthew pitched for the Tigers from 2015 until last season, so he is very familiar with most of the Detroit lineup. This may be somewhat of a revenge spot after Detroit non-gloriously released him after nearly a decade with the team, and he is facing a Tigers lineup that struggled vs. southpaws this year, ranking 23rd in wRC+ against them at only 88.
The Pick
So, while we have all the respect in the world for Skubal, Boyd has pitched well enough since his comeback to keep pace and he has the better offense against left-handed pitching to support him. Bet the Guardians as home underdogs in Game 2.
Predicted Score: Guardians 3 – Tigers 2
MLB Pick: Guardians ML (+117) at Bookmaker
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
