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Tigers vs. Royals MLB Best Bet: Detroit to De-Claw Cy Young Hopeful
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LT Profits
- September 18, 2024
Table of Contents
MLB Pick: Royals ML (+125) at Bookmaker
We have a full slate of MLB betting matchups on Wednesday with all 30 teams in action. We return today with three plays that we feel currently hold great betting value at the present MLB odds.
These plays are based mostly on our proprietary model. One of the best bets for Wednesday comes in the Show Me State where our model likes a side when the Tigers visit the Royals.
Don’t forget to check out our other picks of the day:
And if you’re looking for more value picks, make sure to take a look at our YouTube channel for more daily betting advice. Today, our expert has advice on the Phillies vs. Brewers and Tigers vs. Royals.
Detroit Tigers vs. Kansas City Royals
Wednesday, September 18, 2024 – 07:40 PM ET at Kauffman Stadium
The Tigers are making a late-season push for a wild card spot and they have a Cy Young Award frontrunner on the mound in Tarik Skubal. However, we are betting on Alec Marsh and the Royals as home underdogs in this spot.
Career Year
Skubal showed some decent flashes over his first four seasons, but everything has come together for him in his fifth Major League season at the age of 27. He enters at 16-4 while ranking second in the majors in ERA at 2.78, third in xFIP at 2.86 and fifth in strikeout rate at 10.70/9. So, it is certainly understandable that Skubal is a road favorite here.
However, should he be this big of a favorite on the road against a solid Kansas City team that is still ahead of the Tigers in the standings? Not only that, but Tarik’s last two starts against the Royals this season have been two of his worst this year, allowing a total of nine earned runs over 11.1 total innings. This has continued a career pattern that has seen him go 2-9 with a 5.05 ERA vs. Kansas City.
Nice Current Form
Marsh does not have great overall numbers at 8-8 with a 4.52 ERA, although his xFIP is a bit better at 4.16. However, he does combine a good strikeout rate of 8.60/9 with an above-average soft contact rate of 18.2%. And perhaps best of all, he is currently in the best form he has been in this entire season.
Alec has allowed three runs or less in five straight starts, allowing two runs or less in four of them. He has a 3.65 ERA, 3.75 xFIP and 9.49/9 strikeout rate over those starts. And his last outing was his best one yet, allowing one run with 11 strikeouts against two walks in 5.1 innings.
While we concede that Skubal is a legitimate Cy Young favorite, his career struggles against the Royals have continued even during this great season. Add in the raging form that Marsh is in over his last five starts, and we are backing Kansas City as a home underdog.
Predicted Score: Royals 4 – Tigers 3
MLB Pick: Royals ML (+125) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
