Top NCAAF Pick: Under 45 (-115) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)
The 2023 College Football Bowl Season is now in full swing, and we are with the NCAAF odds in hand for a side and total in one of the December 30th bowl matchups.
These picks are mostly based on our proprietary model, and we have the side and total in the Arizona Bowl for you to play at our main offshore sportsbooks.
Toledo Rockets vs. Wyoming Cowboys
Saturday, December 30, 2023 – 04:30 PM ET at Arizona Stadium
We will first look at the total for the Arizona Bowl as that is our favorite play in this game, and we feel that both the Toledo and Wyoming offenses will struggle against the respective opposing defenses, leading to a rather safe Under for this matchup.
Quarterback Gone
The two most important players to hit the transfer portal for this game as of this writing are on the Toledo side, both on the offensive side of the ball in quarterback Dequan Finn, and one of his blindside protectors in stud left guard Vinny Scuiry. That means Tucker Gleason should get the start and he will be playing behind a backup guard on his blind side.
With Finn under center, the Rockets posted great numbers on paper overall this season, averaging 33.6 points per game while ranking 34th in the nation in total offense at 426.7 yards per contest. However, a recurring theme throughout the year was Toledo feasting on the lesser teams in the MAC but not faring as well against the better defenses in the conference.
That came back to bite them in the MAC Championship Game where they were held to 370 total yards and just 14 points in a 23-14 loss to Miami-Ohio. They are now facing another good defense here in Wyoming, which ranks a commendable 51st in total defense and 36th in yards per play allowed at 5.2. Moreover, the Cowboys allow just 4.0 yards per rush, and Toledo was a run-heavy team even with their starter Finn at quarterback.
Last Game for Coach
Wyoming has no notable players in the portal nor any opt-outs, but they do have a key injury with right tackle Caden Barnett questionable. If he is out or hobbled, it would be a big blow facing a Toledo defensive line that averaged 2.7 sacks per game ranking 26th in the country. On the coaching front, longtime coach Craig Bohl announced he is retiring after this game.
But while the Cowboys will have all the motivation here trying to send their departing coach off with a win, this offense struggled all year before suddenly exploding out of the blue for 42 points in each of the last two games. But those two eruptions were not exactly against defensive stalwarts in Hawaii and Nevada, and even with those games, Wyoming finished just 110th in total offense, 65th in rushing offense, and 120th in passing offense.
We look for a return to that woeful offensive form here against a Toledo defense ranked 31st in total defense and 20th in yards per play allowed, at just 4.9. Also, as you can see by the rankings above, Wyoming is “less bad” running the football than passing it, but the Rockets are also good at stopping the run, in fact, tied with Wyoming in YPC allowed at 4.0.
The Pick
So, with two defenses each ranked in the top 36 in yards per play allowed overall, and both good against the run facing two offenses that need to run to have success, we think points will be hard to come by for both sides and we are betting the Under in the Arizona Bowl.
Predicted Score: Wyoming 17 – Toledo 16
NCAAF Pick: Under 45 (-115) at Bookmaker
Valuable Hook
As for the side, the very low-scoring game that we envision gives inherent value to the underdog, and with the consensus line as of this writing at Toledo +3.5, that hook attached to the field goal becomes even more valuable in a low-scoring environment.
And while Gleason is a step down from Finn at quarterback for the Rockets, the former has displayed ability in his limited duty this year, completing 66.7% of his passes (14-for-21) for 9.0 yards per attempt with four touchdown passes and no interceptions.
The Pick
In the end, though, we do expect Wyoming to eke out a win for the departing Bohl, but as you can see from our score projection above, it is by the slimmest of margins, making 3.5 points worth taking with Toledo in an offensive struggle.
NCAAF Pick: Toledo +3.5 (-102) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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