The search for consistent offense is on in the 2024 NFL season. While scoring and the passing numbers were way down for a month, things are starting to perk up again as we learn which offenses we can really trust on a weekly basis.
A slew of injuries to big-name players, especially top pass catchers, is also causing some havoc with NFL prop picks this season. But we have identified a handful of players that you should feel confident about in usually hitting their benchmarks for your player prop picks.
Remember, we are looking for players with a track record for producing in a situation that should be conducive for them to continue posting big numbers each week.
RB Derrick Henry – Baltimore Ravens
How did the rest of the NFL allow the run-happy Ravens to add Derrick Henry in the same backfield with Lamar Jackson? While he had a slow start in Week 1 in Kansas City, Henry has been on fire as the Ravens are the No. 2 scoring offense in the league at just under 30.0 points per game.
The Ravens really unloaded their backfield this offseason, sending J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards to the Chargers. Henry is giving up some carries to his quarterback, but Justice Hill isn’t even getting 4.0 carries per game as they are feeding the King on a weekly basis with the lion’s share of running back carries.
That’s why Henry has a decent shot to win his 3rd rushing title in his Hall of Fame career. He has also scored a touchdown in each of the first 5 games with Baltimore, so he’s as reliable as anyone to find the end zone this year on a weekly basis. All those short Gus Edwards touchdown runs from last year are going Henry’s way now, and he showed against Buffalo he still has the speed at 30 years old to take it the distance from 87 yards out.
Henry is still royalty for NFL player prop picks. The Ravens will ride him until the wheels pop off.
RB Saquon Barkley – Philadelphia Eagles
We are not going to overreact and say the Giants made a mistake in not paying Saquon Barkley, which allowed him to sign with the rival Eagles. But thanks to a superior offensive line in Philadelphia, Barkley has started this season playing as well as he ever has with at least 84 rushing yards in his first 4 games.
While they haven’t unlocked his receiving potential yet, Barkley’s rushing numbers are great and have been very consistent. He’s also hit a few long carries already to boost his average to 6.0 yards per carry.
The Eagles have had some wide receiver injuries, including A.J. Brown since Week 2, but even with those receivers coming back, they should treat Barkley as their workhorse the rest of the season. It seems like the Eagles have regained their offensive identity with Barkley in the backfield after losing some of their mojo in 2023 after they let Miles Sanders walk.
The only prop concern with Barkley is touchdowns, because his quarterback (Jalen Hurts) still loves the Tush Push and vulturing those 1-yard scores with the most effective short-yardage play in the NFL. But that’s why Barkley’s rushing yardage props are his most reliable stat right now.
QB Dak Prescott – Dallas Cowboys
If we’re being honest, quarterback play is off to a weak start in the 2024 NFL season. But if you want someone to trust for prop picks, you want a quarterback who is going to have consistent volume and be involved in a lot of high-scoring games where he should be expected to throw (high volume).
Dak Prescott in Dallas fits that perfectly this year. We know he lost Tony Pollard in the backfield, and the Cowboys didn’t do a great job of filling that hole, so they are going to lean on Dak throwing the ball to carry the offense.
They also have had injuries on defense, including superstar Micah Parsons, so the defense has been off to a rough start as they were giving up huge plays at home to the Saints and Ravens even before the recent rash of injuries.
The other factor here is the schedule. The Cowboys still have 4 games left in the division against some high-flying offenses like the Eagles and Commanders with the latter looking great behind rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels. Dallas also still has to play teams like the 49ers, Texans, Bengals, and Lions.
After a slow start in Week 1, Prescott has been posting big passing yardage numbers in the last month. Expect that to continue as the Cowboys are not going to be blowing out teams like they did in 2023. They are going to play from behind more often.
For these reasons, wide receiver CeeDee Lamb is also one of the best options for prop picks, especially if you play any first quarter props as it usually doesn’t take long for Prescott to get his main wideout involved this season.
WR Justin Jefferson – Minnesota Vikings
There are some great wide receivers this season, but unfortunately players like Rashee Rice, Cooper Kupp, and Nico Collins have already suffered significant injuries that will keep them out for 4 games or more.
That’s why it is hard to go against Justin Jefferson in Minnesota. He’s the highest-paid wideout, and he just might be the best wideout in Kevin O’Connell’s offense, which moves him around the formation so much to create favorable looks much like this offense did for Cooper Kupp on the 2021 Rams. O’Connell was the offensive coordinator for that offense.
You have to admit that even if you don’t believe that quarterback Sam Darnold is legitimate this year, he’s a much better pick in 2024 to help Jefferson put up numbers than if they had rookie J.J. McCarthy (meniscus) starting games. Darnold has been slinging it, and Jefferson is off to a very nice start with 90.0 yards per game and 4 touchdowns.
While Jefferson is averaging a career-low 5.2 receptions per game, he is averaging a career-high 17.3 yards per reception, so his big plays have been great for the offense. That’s what makes him such a reliable play for receiving yardage props as he’s gone over 80 yards in 4 straight games going into the bye week.
The Vikings have also spent the least amount of time trailing in games this year, so they haven’t even had to force the ball as much as in past years with Kirk Cousins at quarterback. They’ll likely regress at some point and have to pass more while playing in closer games, but that will only help Jefferson put up bigger numbers.
WR Ja’Marr Chase – Cincinnati Bengals
Can the Bengals just pay this man already? Ja’Marr Chase made some NFL news this summer when he was going to holdout if he didn’t get an extension that would make him the highest-paid wide receiver in NFL history at just over $35 million per season to beat out Justin Jefferson’s deal.
But the Bengals did not budge, and Chase showed up for Week 1’s shocking loss against the Patriots, which he reportedly played with a stomach virus that weekend. A week later against the hated Chiefs, Chase was held to 35 yards and had a costly 15-yard penalty in the 4th quarter of that loss.
However, Chase has put those early-season bumps behind him and is playing out of his mind right now with games of 118, 85, and 193 yards while also scoring 5 touchdowns in those games. His candidacy for Offensive Player of the Year is very much alive even if his Bengals are struggling with a 1-4 start.
Quarterback Joe Burrow is producing his best career statistics right now, and Chase’s big-play ability has a lot to do with that. In losing Tyler Boyd, the Bengals don’t have their usual 3-wide offense, and Tee Higgins has been injured.
But Chase should continue dominating as he seeks that record-breaking contract extension. Burrow is also very focused on him for big plays. Of Burrow’s 11 career touchdown passes of 60-plus yards, 9 of them were to Chase, including a couple this year.
The Bengals are also really struggling defensively, so the games are going to be higher scoring than they’re used to, causing Burrow to throw more to Chase. For yards and touchdowns, he is the reliable play right now.
