NCAAF Pick: Over 9.5 Wins (+130) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
Tulane won the American Athletic Conference last season, but the Green Wave will be defending against a whole new crop of AAC rivals in 2023 as they attempt to repeat.
The American saw perennial contenders Cincinnati, Central Florida and Houston all leave the conference for the Big 12. To replace those teams at the top of the league, the AAC raided Conference USA to bring in UAB, Florida Atlantic, Charlotte, UTSA, Rice and North Texas.
The league also eliminated divisions for the upcoming season, and the eight-game conference schedule means that teams will avoid playing five league members each.
The league’s talent level suffered a big dropoff in the exchange of members, which should make Tulane’s path to a repeat smoother. The Green Wave also return the backbone of their offense, although there are holes to fill at the skill positions and across the defense.
Let’s break down the NCAAF odds and preview the 2023 season for the Tulane Green Wave.
Key Facts
- Tulane looks to repeat as AAC champions in a newly reformed league.
- Michael Pratt returns to lead an offense bolstered by transfers.
- The offensive line needs to replace four starters.
Offense
Quarterback Michael Pratt returns for his fourth season as starting quarterback for the Green Wave. He threw for 3,000 yards, 27 touchdowns and just five interceptions last season, while rushing for nearly 500 yards and 11 scores.
Pratt should benefit from the best protection in the American Conference. Four starting offensive linemen return from last season, led by first-team All-ACC center Sincere Haynesworth and first-team guard Prince Pines. The one hole on the line, at left tackle, will be filled by LSU transfer Cameron Wire.
New Weapons
Pratt will have a new case of targets to throw to, however, after Tulane lost five of the top seven receivers from last season. AAC offensive player of the year Tyjae Spears left for the NFL, taking 1,581 rushing yards and 19 touchdowns with him. Pratt is the leading returning rusher on the team, although backup running back Shaadie Clayton-Johnson (333 yards, 2 touchdowns) will have an expanded role.
He’s joined by Liberty transfer Shedro Louis and Iverson Celestine, a third-team back last year.
Receivers Shae Wyatt and Duece Watts and their 1,400 receiving yards and 15 touchdowns are also gone. The cupboard isn’t bare, however. Lawrence Keys and Jha’Quan Jackson will have expanded roles after combining for 63 catches, 850 yards and 5 touchdowns last year. The team added transfers from Texas A&M (Yulkeith Brown) and Louisiana (Dontae Fleming).
Defense
The Tulane D will be sporting a makeover almost as extensive as the AAC itself. The Green Wave loses its top five tacklers from last season and also has a new defensive coordinator—Troy’s Shiel Wood, who replaces Oregon-bound Chris Hampton.
The defensive line will have two key contributors back in tackle Patrick Jenkins and pass rusher Darius Hodges. They combined for 8 sacks and 17 tackles for loss last season. Tulane also returns edge rushers Angelo Anderson and Keith Cooper, while tackle Adonis Friloux returns after missing last year with an injury.
More Returning Talent
The secondary also has returning talent in first-team All-AAC corner Jarius Monroe and veteran Lance Robinson. The team lost it’s starting safeties but restocked through the transfer portal with imported starters from Northwestern, Louisiana and Nebraska-Kearney.
The linebacker unit got hit hardest, as top tacklers Dorian Williams and Nick Anderson are gone. Louisiana Tech’s Tyler Grubbs joins last year’s backups to try to rebuild the position.
Schedule
Tulane is the class of the AAC and should be favored in every conference game. Having said that, the new unbalance schedule didn’t do the Green Wave any favors. Tulane was chosen to finish first in the league in the preseason media poll and plays six of the next seven teams in the poll, missing only SMU (predicted to finish third). Tulsa (picked 11th) is the only bottom-tier team on Tulane’s schedule in Week 11.
In the non-conference schedule, Tulane should be heavily favored against South Alabama (Week 1) and Nicholls (Week 4), both at home. The Green Wave hosts Ole Miss in what could determine whether Tulane can go undefeated in the regular season. A trip to Southern Miss in Week 3 completes the non-conference slate.
The Pick
Tulane has question marks on defense, but last year’s squad wasn’t exactly the 85 Bears. The Green Wave gave up 24 or more points in each of their last five games, seven of the last eight and nine of the last 11. Tulane’s success in 2022 was built on offense, and with quarterback Pratt and the offensive line returning, the offense should be on the same level this season.
The over/under is 9.5 regular season wins. To miss that, Tulane would need to lose two non-conference games and get upset in the conference season. We don’t see that happening and wouldn’t be surprised to see the Green Wave win 11 for your NCAAF picks.
NCAAF Pick: Over 9.5 Wins (+130) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product
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