MLB Pick: Twins ML (-105) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
We have a typical 15-game slate of Major League Baseball betting matchups for Sunday with 14 day-games plus Sunday Night Baseball. And we have three plays that we feel hold great betting value at the top-rated sportsbooks.
These plays and the latest MLB odds are based mostly on our proprietary model. One of the best bets for Sunday comes in the Emerald City, where our model favors a side when the Twins visit the Mariners.
If you’re looking for more MLB value picks:
Minnesota Twins vs. Seattle Mariners
Sunday, June 30, 2024 – 04:10 PM ET at T-Mobile Park
This looks like a nice pitching matchup in Seattle on Sunday, but we think Joe Ryan is the better pitcher peripherally and are thus betting on his Twins when they visit Luis Castillo and the Mariners.
Deserves Better
Ryan deserves much better than his 5-5 record, as he enters with a 3.31 ERA and 3.42 xFIP. Remember though that the Twins had a terrible start to the season, but they have now moved up to second place in the AL Central, so the wins should now start to accumulate for Ryan.
Joe has an excellent K/BB ratio of 9.18/1.38 per nine innings with a good 12.4% swinging-strike rate. Furthermore, he has a very good soft/hard contact ratio of 21.3% / 29.6%, with both of those figures an improvement over the 14.7% / 32.6% last year. Remember though that Ryan had his worst Major League season last year with a career-worst 4.51 ERA, and he now appears to be back to his vintage form.
Good but Not as Good
Now, we do not have much of an issue with Castillo here other than his pitching matchup. That is because he too deserves a better fate than his 6-9 record as he owns a 3.79 ERA and 3.88 xFIP. Do note however that he does lag behind Ryan in both figures, and the same can be said of his K/BB and soft/hard contact ratios.
Luis has a K/BB ratio of 9.09/2.71 per nine innings, with the biggest disparity there being the walk rate at 1.33 higher than Ryan. And Castillo’s contact ratio is noticeably worse at 18.2% / 31.1%.
Also, Castillo is facing the hotter offense with Minnesota ranking fourth in the majors in wRC+ against right-handed pitching during the month of June at a hefty 125.
The Pick
So, while both pitchers deserve better records based on their peripherals, Ryan simply grades out better sabermetrically and has the better offense supporting him. That has us backing the Twins at a cheap price on the road in Seattle.
Predicted Score: Twins 4 – Mariners 2
MLB Pick: Twins ML (-105) at Heritage Sports
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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