Twins vs. Rangers MLB Best Bet: Heaney to Lasso Win for Texas
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LT Profits
- August 16, 2024
MLB Pick: Rangers ML (-111) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
We are currently on a 25-15-1 run in our last 41 plays entering Friday’s slate of MLB betting matchups including going 2-0-1 on Wednesday. As usual, we have three more best bets from top sportsbooks for today’s slate that we feel hold great value.
These best bets and current MLB odds are based mostly on our proprietary model. Our model favors a side in the Lone Star State on Friday with the Twins visiting the Rangers.
For in-depth coverage, expert analysis, and all the excitement of this year’s most thrilling baseball showdown, check out our MLB World Series betting page.
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Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers
Friday, August 16, 2024 – 08:05 PM ET at Globe Life Field
Consistent but Bad Luck
We give Andrew Heaney of the Rangers the pitching edge over Simeon Woods Richardson of the Twins despite owning the higher ERA. Thus, we are backing Texas at home in Arlington.
Yes, Andrew Heaney enters this contest at 4-12 with a 4.05 ERA and 4.34 xFIP, but a strong case can be made that he has been the unluckiest pitcher in baseball this year. That is because he has almost always pitched well enough to give the Rangers a chance to win, yet he has been on the short end of 12 of his 16 decisions.
To wit, Andrew has made 23 starts this year and he allowed three earned runs or less in 19 of them. Furthermore, he allowed more than four total runs only twice. He has a nice strikeout rate of 8.63/9 with a good swinging strike rate of 12.0%, and he has greatly lowered his hard contact rate to 29.4% from 34.3% last year. None of this syncs up with a 4-12 record, so Heaney should be in line for some good regression.
Not Many Swinging Strikes
Simeon Woods Richardson is 3-3 with a 3.78 ERA, although his xFIP is noticeably higher at 4.24. He also has a good strikeout rate of 8.00/9, but our issue here is his underlying metrics do not support that K-rate. And a decrease in that rate would magnify his ordinary groundball rate of 37.3%.
So, why are we skeptical about the good strikeout rate continuing? Well, the answer is his single-digit swinging strike rate of 9.8%, which lines up with his career rate of 9.6%. This tells us that he is getting more called third strikes this season compared to past years, which can be attributed to luck. Also, his low overall Stuff+ rating of 86 disconnects with the strikeout rate.
The Pick
Thus, we foresee negative regression for Woods Richardson while Heaney is simply due for better luck if he simply keeps pitching as well as he has. This has us betting the Rangers at a modest price.
Predicted Score: Rangers 5 – Twins 3
MLB Pick: Rangers ML (-111) at Heritage Sports
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
