UConn vs. Florida 2025 NCAA Tournament Second Round Best Bets

How They Got Here

UConn isn’t steamrolling opponents the way it did in the past two NCAA Tournaments, but when it needed to lock in defensively, it delivered. The Huskies clamped down late to secure a hard-fought 67-59 win over Oklahoma on Friday, proving once again that while they’re flawed, they’re still formidable.

Solo Ball led the way with 14 points and five rebounds, Alex Karaban had 13 points and seven rebounds, and Tarris Reed Jr. finished with 12 points and seven rebounds off the bench.

Meanwhile, Florida had what amounted to an intense practice session in a 95-69 rout of Norfolk State on Friday. Now, the Gators get a much tougher challenge. They probably would’ve preferred another shot at Oklahoma—the same Sooners team they dominated 85-63 during SEC play.

Walter Clayton Jr. spearheaded Florida’s offense with 23 points and five rebounds, Alijah Martin added 17 points, and Thomas Haugh chipped in 13 points and four assists.

It’s been said repeatedly—this isn’t last year’s UConn squad, and it’s certainly not the 2023 version that turned into a juggernaut in March. But the Huskies still have size, they still protect the rim, and when they crank up the defensive intensity, teams struggle. Oklahoma felt that pressure at the worst possible moments.

UConn remains elite on the boards, outrebounding the Sooners 41-34, though it was unusually shaky at the free-throw line. Florida has the physicality to match up inside and hit the glass, but its free-throw shooting is even less reliable. The key difference? The Gators push the tempo, and the Huskies don’t.

At its peak, UConn could turn a defensive stop into a transition bucket in seconds, stringing together bursts that buried opponents. That’s no longer a consistent weapon. Florida, however, thrives in that style—forcing turnovers, running the floor, and piling up points in a hurry.

UConn’s biggest issue is keeping up when the pace accelerates. Turnovers and empty possessions have become a problem, and against a team like Florida, those mistakes will be costly.

The Huskies improved to 15-0 when holding opponents under 68 points but are just 8-10 when they don’t. So how often has Florida been held under 68? Just once—in a bizarre 64-44 loss to Tennessee. It’s unlikely to happen again.

Key Matchups

The contrast in styles will define this game—can UConn slow the pace and control the boards, or will Florida’s up-tempo attack create too many scoring opportunities for the Huskies to keep up?

UConn’s Half-Court Defense vs. Florida’s Transition Game

The Huskies thrive when they can dictate the tempo, lock down defensively, and dominate the glass. They held Oklahoma to 59 points and improved to 15-0 when keeping teams under 68. The problem? Florida almost never gets held that low—only once this season, in a strange 64-44 loss to Tennessee.

The Gators love to push the pace and turn defensive stops into quick buckets, an area where UConn has struggled. If Florida can get out in transition, UConn may not have the firepower to keep up.

Solo Ball and Alex Karaban vs. Florida’s Rebounding

UConn has been elite on the boards, outrebounding Oklahoma 41-34. Ball, Karaban, and Reed Jr. have been key in maintaining that advantage, but Florida has the size to fight back. The Gators don’t dominate the glass quite like UConn, but they have enough presence inside to keep the rebounding battle close.

If UConn can control the boards and limit second-chance points, it could force Florida into a half-court game, where the Huskies have the defensive edge.

Walter Clayton Jr. vs. UConn’s Perimeter Defense

Clayton lit up Norfolk State for 23 points and has been the go-to scorer for Florida. UConn’s defensive pressure was suffocating against Oklahoma, but the Huskies also struggle with turnovers and empty possessions. If Clayton and Martin can take advantage of those miscues and get out in transition, the Huskies will have a hard time keeping Florida’s offense in check.

Turnovers and Runs

Florida thrives on turning mistakes into points. UConn, meanwhile, has been prone to costly giveaways and stretches of offensive stagnation. If Florida forces the Huskies into a couple of bad turnovers at the wrong time, it could lead to one of those scoring bursts that flips the game.

The Pick

Expect UConn to control the boards early and impose its defensive will for stretches, but Florida’s ability to push the pace will gradually take over.

The Huskies will have a run late in the second half when it looks like they’re about to seize control, but a couple of key turnovers will swing the momentum back to the Gators. Florida’s transition game will be the difference in the final minutes of a low-scoring contest.

NCAA Tournament Pick: Under 151 (-110) at BetOnline 

Under 151 (-110)

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