Top UFC Pick: Over 3 ½ Rounds (-123) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
California knows how to party and so does the UFC, so it’s only natural that the two combine for a highly anticipated featherweight championship fight for the UFC 298 main event, and I’m back to supplement all your betting needs.
Undefeated at 145 pounds in the UFC, Alexander “The Great” Volkanovski resumes his emphatic reign as featherweight champ when he invites a formidable, unbeaten, No.1 contender in Ilia Topuria.
Continue reading for a complete betting guide that includes an early preview of the UFC 298 main event clash between Volkanovski and Topuria, including updated UFC odds and our expert UFC first-look betting picks, predictions and analysis for you to play at the top-rated online sportsbooks.
UFC 298
- When: Saturday, February 17, 2024 – 06:30 PM ET
- Where: Honda Center, California
- Scheduled Bouts: 12
- Main Event: Alexander Volkanovski vs. Ilia Topuria
- Moneyline Probability: Volkanovski – 55.2% (-123) Topuria – 48.5% (+106)
UFC 298 Main Event
Alexander Volkanovski vs. Ilia Topuria
Alexander “The Great” Volkanovski
He’ll go down as one of the greatest featherweight fighters in professional mixed martial arts history.
Boasting an impressive 26-3-0 pro record (13-2 UFC), with his only two losses in the UFC coming against the pound-for-pound great Islam Makhachev. Could recency bias be giving us a gift on the UFC 298 betting odds this weekend?
Aside from his lightweight stint, when was the last time we witnessed a -123 price tag on Volkanovski?
He’s been dominant at 145 pounds, with a 13-0 win streak at this weight class since his debut in 2016. However, this hasn’t prevented an overshadowing doubt in his chances of victory this weekend.
Volkanovski Best ML Odds: (-123) at Heritage Sports
Ilia “El Matador” Topuria
There’s a level of hype surrounding Ilia Topuria, and rightfully so.
The Georgian has run through the competition since joining the UFC in 2020 and not one opponent has even come close.
However, while Bryce Mitchell and Josh Emmett (Topuria’s most recent wins) are worthy top-15-ranked fighters, they aren’t even close to the level of competition that Volkanovski has competed against and won. Yet, this has seemingly made no impact on the close-to-even betting odds presented.
Topuria Best ML Odds: (+106) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
UFC 298: Tale of the Tape
UFC 298 Skillset Analysis: Styles Make Fights
Yall must have forgotten because, although Volkanovski lost back-to-back lightweight bouts against Makhachev, he came very close to becoming a two-division champion in his first meeting with the Russian P4P No. 1.
Sure, he was head-kicked into the shadow realm last time out. However, Volk acted as a company man and saved the UFC 294 as a short-notice replacement.
We should expect minimal wrestling and/or grappling in this contest, which leads to a five-round kickboxing battle.
Topuria is a power striker. Yet, he must first catch Volkanovski, who has easily implemented top-notch footwork, head movement and defensive attributes during his tenure as the 145lb king.
Pressure, output, fight intelligence and experience competing in five-round contests favor Volkanovski heading into the weekend’s main event. Can Topuria win? You damn skippy, he’s got cement in those hands, but skill-for-skill, I don’t envision a fight with Volk where he can out-technique him.
A knockout win is the most probable path to victory for Topuria. Nonetheless, outside of a Makhachev head kick, nobody has come close to stopping Volkanovski inside the distance.
There’s also a lot of credibility we must give to Topuria’s durability, so looking at the over/under feels like the safest wager for this weekend’s main event.
Over 3 ½ Rounds: The UFC 298 Best Bet Formula
The odds have placed short odds on Volk at featherweight (-123) for the first time since his first meeting with Max Holloway in 2019.
Since that victory, the moneyline has been juiced, so the sharp side is apparent for bettors backing the ML.
However, as I’m unsure that the Makhachev KO has affected his confidence, I’m siding with the toughness and proven durability of Topuria and Volkanovski by taking over 3 ½ rounds.
The over (3.5) has landed in 8 of Volkanovski’s previous 11 UFC bouts. Topuria went the distance with Emmett last time out and began to fade significantly in the third round, so it isn’t wild to imagine a similar scenario playing out against the significantly higher tempo and draining style of Volk.
UFC Pick: Over 3 ½ Rounds (-123) [1u to win 1.59u] at Heritage Sports
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
Calculators
