Top UFC Pick: Sean O’Malley ML (-280) [2.8u to win 1u] at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
In the promotions to pay-per-view, UFC 299 live from the 305 presents a plethora of top-tier talent. The evening’s main event is a bantamweight championship bout, and I’m back to cover all your UFC betting needs.
It’s a rematch three years in the making, but this time around, title implications will provide added pressure when Marlon ‘Chita’ Vera challenges ‘Suga’ Sean O’Malley for the 135-pound strap.
Read on for our complete betting guide with an early preview of the UFC 299 main event clash between O’Malley and Vera. We have included updated UFC odds and our expert UFC first-look betting picks, predictions and analysis for you to play at top-rated online sportsbooks.
UFC 299
- When: Saturday, March 09, 2023 – 06:00 PM ET
- Where: Kaseya Center, Miami
- Scheduled Bouts: 14
- Main Event: Sean O’Malley vs. Marlon Vera 2
- Moneyline Probability: O’Malley – 20.4% (-280) Vera – 82% (+245)
UFC 299 Main Event
Sean O’Malley vs. Marlon Vera 2
‘Suga’ Sean O’Malley
The baby-faced new blood of the bantamweight division, who introduced us to the ‘Suga Show’ on Dana White’s Contender Series following a round one knockout six years ago, has since lived up to the hype. He stormed the 135-pound weight class and returns to the octagon for his debut title defense following an ultra-impressive knockout of Aljamain Sterling.
Whether you love him or you hate him, you have to respect him.
While his out-of-the-octagon persona has been a hit or miss with the MMA community, his offensive striking prowess is undeniable ahead of his UFC 299 championship defense in a rematch with the only fighter who’s handed him a pro-career loss to date.
O’Malley Best ML Odds: (-280) at Heritage Sports
Marlon ‘Chito’ Vera 2
Ecuador’s Marlon Vera, 22 fights into his UFC tenure, despite being just 31 years old, is a veteran of the sport who’s fought against some of the promotion’s most noteworthy names. Jose Aldo, Rob Font, Frankie Edgar, Dominick Cruz, Cory Sandhagen and Pedro Munhoz have all been ticked off his resume, and win or lose, he’s known to bring the violence each and every time.
It’s a rematch Vera has welcomed since he first finished ‘Suga’ via round-one TKO in 2020, especially because the word “lucky” has been thrown at him based on the mid-fight injury O’Malley suffered before the stoppage. Therefore, expect a fired-up ‘Chito’ who’ll aim to prove his doubters wrong and go 2-0 against his foe while simultaneously collecting championship gold.
Vera Best ML Odds: (+245) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
UFC 299: Tale of the Tape
UFC 299 Skillset Analysis: Styles Make Fights
The first fight tells us everything we need to know about Suga and Chito’s potential game plan and striking offenses, and it’s difficult to argue that the former was losing the exchanges before the stoppage occurred.
Vera stood in front of O’Malley for the first half of the first round and was getting pieced up via low, front and body kicks. He struggled to find his range and, as the smaller man, seemed to be taking the brunt of any damage inflicted during those early minutes.
It was O’Malley’s faints and fakes that consistently caused Chito to react, which really stood out to me. And in true Chito-Vera style, he continued plodding forward with a Muay Thai guard, ate the damage and proved his durability to still be one of the most noteworthy in the division.
Remove the injury aspect; there are multiple variables that could’ve played out, but it’s unlikely that either man would’ve utilized a grappling/wrestling game plan. If we take this expectation into Saturday’s main event and combine the success ‘Suga’ had early on, the price tag on his name this weekend is justified.
Although a five-round contest likely favors the challenger, I do believe the champion can take rounds one, two and three, at least, to claim a decision dub and retain the belt.
O’Malley Moneyline: The UFC 299 Best Bet Formula
The odds opened with O’Malley as a -198 favorite back in 2023. However, since the New Year, we’ve steadily watched the price increase to the line we’re seeing today.
While some ML value has evaporated, it’s the only straight-betting position I feel safe with. I understand that rematches don’t always play out the same. Still, I must take what we witnessed in their first contest, and as O’Malley looked more confident and faster, he was also much longer and comfortable fighting at range while picking Vera apart.
For more value, take the over 4 ½ rounds at -160. Anyone who believes ‘Suga’ is the expected victor must side with the most likely outcome being a decision win because who finished ‘Chito’? Nobody!
UFC Pick: Over 4 ½ Rounds (-160) [1.6u to win 1u] at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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