Top UFC Pick: Leon Edwards Win by Decision (+110) [1u to win 1.10u] at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
The United Kingdom hosts the most anticipated sporting event of the weekend. Still, there’ll be no tea and crumpets as the Ultimate Fighting Championship returns to English shores, and I’m here covering all your betting needs.
In the main event, and one of two title fights, Leon Edwards meets a familiar foe in Belal Muhammad, with the UFC welterweight championship up for grabs at top sportsbooks.
Read on for our complete betting guide with an early preview of the UFC 304 title bout between Leon and Belal, including updated UFC odds and our free expert UFC first-look betting picks, predictions, and analysis.
UFC 304 Information
- When: Saturday, July 27, 2024 – 06:00 PM ET
- Where: Co-Op Live, Manchester, England
- Scheduled Bouts: 14
- Main Event: Leon Edwards vs. Belal Muhammad
- Moneyline Probability: Edwards – 71% (-250) Muhammad – 31% (+220)
Belal Muhammad vs. Leon Edwards
UFC 304 Welterweight Main Event Bout
Leon “Rocky” Edwards
Some argue that Birmingham, England’s Leon “Rocky” Edwards deserves the No.1 pound-for-pound ranking position. It’s easy to see why, but he’s still #4 in said rankings because not since 2015 has the pride of British MMA lost a professional contest, and his current twelve-fight win streak also led him to welterweight glory when defeating the division’s long-standing champion Kamaru Usman in 2022.
Edwards, 32, is on the brink of G.O.A.T status. The Englishman, known for his striking prowess, has already overcome a striker’s worst stylistic matchup (wrestling) by running through two of the best wrestlers in UFC history, Colby Covington and Usman, but can he do it once again when returning home to defend his strap this weekend?
Edwards Combat Sports Accomplishments
- UFC Welterweight Champion (One time, two defenses, current)
- Second longest undefeated streak in UFC welterweight division history (13)
- UFC Performance of the Night (2)
- First and only Jamaican-born UFC champion in promotional history
Edwards Best Moneyline Odds: (-250) at Bovada
Belal “Remember the Name” Muhammad
Like his UFC 304 opponent, Belal Muhammad has garnered an impressive win streak in recent years. “Remember the Name” hasn’t lost since 2019, and between then and now, he’s collected nine straight wins, including a victory over high-profile names such as Gilbert Burns, Stephen Thompson, Demian Maia, and Vicente Luque.
Belal, aged 36, is unquestionably fighting in the prime of his career. However, to become the champ, he must defeat a champion he’s all too familiar with.
Leon and Belal first crossed paths in 2021, in a small cage during the pandemic, where every punch could be heard. The problem is, it was “Rocky’s” punches making the impact, and as Belal couldn’t get his wrestling offense going, many believe we’ll see the same scenario play out come Saturday.
Belal Combat Sports Accomplishments
- UFC Performance of the Night (2)
- UFC Fight of the Night (1)
- Tied for most unanimous decision victories in UFC welterweight division history
- Titan FC Welterweight Champion (One time, former)
Belal Best Moneyline Odds: (+220) at BetAnySports
UFC 304: Tale of the Tape
UFC 304 Skillset Analysis: Styles Make Fights
We can sit and watch the 2021 clash between Edwards and Belal while concluding that the former will dominate this contest. However, both men have certainly evolved since this bout, so it would be foolish to disregard either man’s growing skill set.
For Belal, it’s all about wrestling, cage control, and ground dominance. That said, his offensive striking has undeniably leveled up. While he isn’t the most technical in this area, we’ve watched him grow his ability to transition effortlessly between boxing and wrestling.
Then we have the champ, “Rocky,” whose kickboxing background and striking prowess inside the octagon is arguably the most technical and precise on the entire UFC roster. The Brit’s wrestling, though, is lightyears ahead of a past version of himself, as even the likes of Usman and Covington were struggling to take him down, and his preparation for those fights alone handed him a huge advantage against wrestling-based fighters attempted to dethrone him.
Edwards Win by Decision: The UFC 304 Best Bet Formula
The available UFC odds at Bookmakers Review have placed Edwards as a significant betting favorite, and rightfully so. We have a cliché striker versus wrestler matchup, but there’s more intrigue on the champ's side because of how well he’s handled wrestling game plans from the opposition.
Most of the variable factors should favor Leon. He’ll be faster, more powerful, and precise while also being well-rounded enough to handle Belal’s clear path to victory, wrestling. We have opposite styles, but both fighters have done well in all areas, and this result will boil down to who’s more talented in their lesser preferred area of the fight game.
Alternative factors such as durability and cardio check out for both men. “Rocky” has never been stopped via KO/TKO or submission, and Belal’s lone ITD loss was a knockout defeat in 2016. They’re both point-fighters, but the points certainly favor Leon in striking and Belal in grappling. It’ll just depend on who’s skills are stronger to implement their game plan.
Edwards has proved he can hang with the most elite wrestlers and force a striking battle, so it’s a no-brainer to side with the champ. It also doesn’t help Belal’s case when watching the first fight because he looked completely lost when attempting to exchange strikes with the champ and didn’t land a single takedown.
UFC Pick: Leon Edwards Win by Decision (+110) [1u to win 1.10u] at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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