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UFC 305 First Look: Du Plessis vs. Adesanya Betting Picks, Odds & Predictions
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David Manyun
- August 13, 2024
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Our Top Betting Pick for UFC 305
UFC Pick: Israel Adesanya ML (-115) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
In the UFC’s return to sunny Australia, a middleweight rivalry will finally reach the octagon when leather is traded for 185lb gold in the evening’s main event, and we’re covering all your betting needs with top sportsbooks.
Former middleweight king Israel Adesanya returns from an eleven-month layoff to face the newly crowned 185-pound titleholder, Dricus Du Plessis. The hostility between these two is real, and hopefully, this hatred will spill into the cage this weekend.
Read on for our complete betting guide with an early preview of the UFC 305 main event clash between Du Plessis and Adesanya, including updated UFC odds and our free expert UFC first-look betting picks, predictions, and analysis.
Dricus Du Plessis vs. Israel Adesanya
UFC 305 Middleweight Main Event Bout
UFC 305 Information
- When: Saturday, August 17, 2024 – 06:30 PM ET
- Where: RAC Arena, Perth, Australia
- Scheduled Bouts: 12
- Main Event: Dricus Du Plessis vs. Israel Adesanya
- Moneyline Probability: Du Plessis – 51.2% (-105) Adesanya – 53.5% (-115)
UFC 305 Main Event Profiles
Dricus “Stillknocks” Du Plessis
Much like his weekend challenger, Dricus Du Plessis took just seven fights to claim UFC gold and conquered every opponent in his way en route to becoming the middleweight champ. Heart, resiliency, and pressure best describe South Africa’s first-ever UFC titleholder, and the only question now is whether or not he can remain at the top.
A 7-0 UFC record with four knockouts and one submission, including back-to-back victories over former champions Robert Whittaker and Sean Strickland, suggests ‘Stillknocks’ is entirely capable of defending the throne. Still, it’s no secret that styles make fights, and if anyone can give him a run for his money, Adesanya would be that guy!
Du Plessis Best Moneyline Odds: (+100) at Heritage Sports
Israel “The Last Stylebender” Adesanya
Twenty months and seven fights between 2018 and 2019 is all it took before Israel Adesanya stamped his position as the best middleweight fighter on the planet. The Nigerian-born Kiwi was a breath of fresh air to the 185lb weight class, and achieving glory in such a short time was remarkable.
He wasn’t done, however, with five successful title defenses, a failed attempt at light heavyweight gold, and a set of grudge matches with Alex Pereira that included one knockout loss and one knockout win set “The Last Stylebender’s” legacy in stone, and should he retire tomorrow, nothing changes this.
Of course, the elephant in the room is that Izzy, now aged 35, has lost two of his previous three UFC bouts. However, the man fought at the highest level frequently for five straight years, but after his championship-losing bout to Sean Strickland, a much-needed break has come into play prior to his long-awaited return this weekend.
Adesanya Best Moneyline Odds: (-115) at BetOnline
UFC 305: Tale of the Tape
| Dricus Du Plessis | UFC 305 | Israel Adesanya |
|---|---|---|
| 30 | Age | 35 |
| 6’1 | Height | 6’4 |
| 76” | Reach | 80” |
| South African | Nationality | Nigerian |
| Team CIT | Affiliation | City Kickboxing |
| 9 wins | Current Streak | 1 loss |
| 21-2-0 | Pro Record | 24-3-0 |
| 7-0 | UFC Record | 13-3 |
UFC 305 Skillset Analysis: Styles Make Fights
Du Plessis lacks technical prowess, defensive movement, and sometimes fight intelligence. So, how has he risen to become the cream of the crop at 185lbs, you ask? Well, brute force, consistent pressure, and the desire to be the best instantly spring to mind when you ask this question.
Walking opponents down, pressing them into the cage, and unleashing powerful combinations has been consistent throughout DDP’s career, and it’s been successful because those facing him have not been able to handle the constant barrage and fearless walk-down approach.
Conversely, we have Adesanya, whose long frame and kickboxing background place him in an elite category of strikers who do their best work from the outside. Precise jabs mixed with kicks and powerful hooks in counter-striking situations are a regular on Izzy’s blueprint, and while Strickland was able to walk him down and out-dog him for 25 minutes, I’m unsure DDP can emulate the same style.
Adesanya Moneyline: The UFC 305 Best Bet Formula
Using the MMA math of Strickland beating Izzy and Du Plessis beating Strickland to judge the potential outcome of the UFC 305 main event could backfire, and here’s why. Strickland’s Philly shell and fluent head movement combined with forward-walking pressure were challenging for Adesanya to overcome, but Du Plessis approaches pressure fighting entirely differently.
DDP displays minimal defensive attributes, and instead of out-maneuvering or wisely defending himself, he’ll gladly walk into punches to land his own, which have often been more powerful than his opponents, thus resulting in success.
We’ve seen Adesanya effortlessly overcome power strikers who attempt to walk him down on countless occasions. Strickland had the volume game and respectable defense, whereas alternative past opponents of Izzy, e.g., Cannonier, Costa, Whittaker, and even Pereira, were intelligently outstruck by counters and carefully selected shots all night long.
With another powerful, pressure-based striker lined up for Izzy, he will effortlessly recognize the holes in Du Plessis’ defense and piece him up at will. The knockout threat must be noted, but in a twenty-five-minute bout without a stoppage surfacing, I cannot envision DDP giving a well-rested and recouped Israel Adesanya any troubles in the stand-up war.
UFC Pick: Israel Adesanya ML (-115) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
