UFC 305 Punching Parlay: Two Aussies Guaranteed to Cash in Perth

David Manyun
September 1, 2024

UFC 305 Punching Parlay

Nolan by KO/TKO (-400)
Erceg ML (-155)

UFC Pick: Two-Legged Parlay (+106) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)

The Ultimate Fighting Championship is back on our TV screens this Saturday with a talent-stacked lineup of octagon wars including a main event middleweight championship bout between Dricus Du Plessis and Israel Adesanya.

With a plethora of Aussie talent and visiting martial artists ready to make a statement, I’m back to supplement your UFC parlay betting needs. Below, you’ll find two of my best bets, and I’ve concluded that these betting lines are worth coupling together for this weekend’s pay-per-view. Continue reading to find the best MMA parlay value for UFC 305.

UFC 305 Information

Date & Time: Saturday, August 17, 2024 – 06:30 PM ET
Location: RAC Arena, Perth, Australia
Scheduled Fights: 12
Main Event: Dricus Du Plessis vs. Israel Adesanya (UFC Middleweight Title Bout)

Tom Nolan vs. Alex Reyes

UFC 305 Lightweight Bout

Nolan: The Story So Far

One of Australia’s newest prospects, 24-year-old Tom Nolan, entered his UFC debut as a -350 favorite earlier this year and was starched by Nikolas Motta. The hype train was instantly derailed, so, understandably, bettors are approaching his odds with caution this weekend.

Nolan did redeem himself with a round-one blitzing of Victor Martinez three months back, as the 6-foot-3-inch frame of this young lightweight collected a fifth KO/TKO win.

Can Nolan replicate his knockout success in front of a home crowd? The -1300 moneyline odds suggest a landslide victory coming his way, but is there any caution to worry about from his scheduled opponent?

Nolan Pro MMA Record: 7-1-0
Nolan Knockout Wins: 5
Nolan Submission Wins: 0

Reyes: The Story So Far

Why is Nolan a -1300 favorite? Despite owning the surname Reyes, Alex is nothing like his brother Dominick. The 36-year-old is winless in the UFC, and following his debut loss to Mike Perry in 2017, he was sidelined six years before returning to another knockout defeat against Charlie Campbell.

It wouldn’t be surprising if the UFC saved Reyes’ final fight on his contract for such a moment. A hometown favorite in Nolan needs a layup, and Reyes is the perfect lamb-to-slaughter type of fighter.

Reyes Pro MMA Record: 13-4-0
Reyes Knockout Wins: 9
Reyes Submission Wins: 4

Nolan by KO/TKO Moneyline Reasoning

Does Nolan have holes in his game? You damn skippy, he does. But at 24, losing a UFC debut shouldn’t be held against him. With those octagon jitters and his first promotional win achieved, the Aussie is now gifted the easiest fight at lightweight, and that 6’3” length and fight-ending striking power should have zero complications troubling the paper chin of Reyes.

The available UFC odds favor Nolan at -1300, and of course, we aren’t playing such a ridiculous price. However, as a parlay piece, the KO-prop at -400 is reasonable because Reyes has nothing but a puncher’s chance, years of inactivity, and a chin that’s been crumbled in both of his octagon appearances to date.

Parlay Leg 1: Nolan by KO/TKO (-400) at BetOnline

Steve Erceg vs. Kai Kara-France

UFC 305 Flyweight Bout

Erceg: The Story So Far

Steve Erceg was one round away from winning the flyweight championship last time out. In most cases, this wouldn’t be impressive, but then you realize the Aussie native had only had three UFC fights previously and just 14 pro-MMA bouts overall.

Watching Erceg go 2-2 into round five of his title opportunity against Alexandre Pantoja should be inspirational for budding prospects. Still, it’s right back to the drawing board this weekend, and not only will he fight in Australia, but in his home city of Perth.

Erceg Pro MMA Record: 12-2-0
Erceg Knockout Wins: 2
Erceg Submission Wins: 6

Kara-France: The Story So Far

City Kickboxing standout Kai Kara-France trains with some of the best strikers on the planet, including this weekend’s main eventer, Israel Adesanya. However, he doesn’t live in the shadows of others, and after five years with 11 UFC appearances to date, he’s a household name within the 125lb weight class behind a position cemented in the top rankings.

Kara-France’s most recent loss was a split decision versus Amir Albazi, but some would argue he was robbed of victory in what played out to be an incredibly close bout. The question is, can he rectify those downfalls versus a larger, stronger hometown favorite?

Kara-France Pro MMA Record: 24-11-0
Kara-France Knockout Wins: 11
Kara-France Submission Wins: 3

UFC 305 Erceg vs. Kara-France: Skillset Breakdown

Albazi’s nod from the judges likely stemmed from his ability to carefully counter Kara-France’s speedy striking offense. Takedowns were also present for Kara-France, but as always, he struggles to maintain top control and, at 5’4”, seems to struggle in the strength department.

Erceg’s troubles with Pantoja came on the ground, but he won’t have those same issues. In fact, Erceg’s sheer size and strength will likely be enough to see him bully Kara-France in those same positions, and on the feet, much like Albazi, he can cut angles and string the heavier, more effect strikes across three rounds.

Erceg Moneyline Reasoning

The available odds at the top sportsbooks favor Erceg on the moneyline, albeit with a small gap in price at -155. Kara-France is a dog, and he should never be overlooked, but Erceg’s performances, even in defeat, have been too impressive to start fading him now.

I anticipate Erceg’s composure and patience to have enough return fire for Kara-France on the feet, and I don’t envision the underdog’s size doing him any favors in grappling situations.

In conclusion, I don’t see Kara-France winning a single round. His toughness will be merited, but ultimately, the Perth native will give the crowd something to cheer about as his hand is raised.

Parlay Leg 2: Erceg ML (-155) at BetOnline

The Parlay

Nolan by KO/TKO (-400)
Erceg ML (-155)

UFC Pick: Two-Legged Parlay (+106) at BetOnline

Two-Legged Parlay (+106)

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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.