UFC 306 – Noche UFC First Look: O’Malley vs. Dvalishvili Betting Picks and Odds

UFC 306 Information

• When: Saturday, September 14, 2024 – 07:30 PM ET
• Where: The Sphere, Las Vegas
• Scheduled Bouts: 10
• Main Event: Sean O’Malley vs. Merab Dvalishvili
• Moneyline Probability: O’Malley – 56.5% (-130) Dvalishvili – 46.5% (+115)

UFC 306 Main Event Profiles

Sean “Suga” O’Malley

With millions of followers across all social media platforms, a loyal fan base, and a bantamweight championship accompanied by an emphatic highlight reel, Sean O’Malley is arguably the biggest star in the UFC, and he’ll return to the octagon this weekend in an attempt to showcase his striking talents.

Since his debut for the promotion in 2017, O’Malley has maintained a near-perfect record (10-1-1) with victories over the meanest 135 pounders such as Marlon Vera and Petr Yan, and of course, his title-winning efforts that delivered a sublime knockout over Aljamain Sterling.

Despite his successes, critics still doubt the bright-haired afro sat atop the 29-year-old lengthy frame of ‘Suga.’ His in-cage kickboxing prowess has been a delight to witness, and another lopsided victory at Noche UFC will propel his superstar even further, and that’s quite the accomplishment, considering it could be argued that he’s yet to reach his prime.

O’Malley Best Moneyline Odds: (-130) at BetOnline

Merab “The Machine” Dvalishvili       

Merab Dvalishvili isn’t nicknamed “The Machine” because of his amazing highlight reel or unforgettable stoppage victories. He’s a simple man in octagon warfare, but boy, does he live up to the moniker in terms of cardio and non-stop pace.

The Georgian has built a reputation behind his nightmarish wrestling offensive that isn’t perfect but is coupled with a gas tank that can churn production for 25 minutes consecutively. He owns the most takedowns in UFC 135-pound history, and if opponents aren’t highly conditioned or prepared with top-tier takedown defense, it will be a long night for them, as evidenced by his 10-fight win streak.

Henry Cejudo, Petr Yan, Jose Aldo, and Marlon Moraes are just a few high-profile opponents Merab has defeated en route to earning his title opportunity. He’s been calling the name of O’Malley for years, and finally, his wish will be granted this weekend at the Sphere.

Dvalishvili Best Moneyline Odds: (+115) at BetOnline

UFC 306: Tale of the Tape

Noche UFC Skillset Analysis: Styles Make Fights  

Who doesn’t love a cliché striker versus grappler matchup? And that’s precisely what we’re getting when O’Malley and Dvalishvili cross paths at Noche UFC.

From the moment Merab stepped foot into a UFC octagon, he’s implemented a wrestling-heavy style, and while we’ve witnessed him be more than willing to strike, he knows his bread and butter, and that’s spammed takedowns with heavy top pressure supported by a level of conditioning that allows him to rinse and repeat until the final bell.

Many critics expect Merab’s wrestling to be the kryptonite to O’Malley’s style, but the manner in which the Georgian shoots his takedowns might not be as simple as expected.

‘Suga’ is unlike any opponent Merab has faced due to his ability to cut angles, switch stances, and utilize speedy footwork to remove himself from danger. Merab’s takedowns have come easy versus stationary opponents. Still, O’Malley is the exact opposite, and more worryingly for the challenger, he’ll be faced with a barrage of strikes coming his way.

The pinpoint striking of O’Malley is vicious and so precise that it only takes one to end the fight. This should be a huge concern for Merab backers, as he’s been dropped in four of his last five fights, despite winning those contests, by much lesser talented strikers.

When you couple the versatility of O’Malley’s striking weapons, his movement inside the cage, his underrated takedown defense, and a slick set of faints, he has the tools to keep this fight standing where he’ll undoubtedly dominate.

Watching Merab bite on the faints of significantly slower and less threatening opponents leads me to believe he’ll struggle to find the perfect entry point for takedowns. Flat-footed foes have been open to takedown attempts, but similarly to when Sterling faced ‘Suga,’ it was a struggle to find the takedown opportunities he so desperately needed. 

O’Malley Moneyline: The UFC 306 Best Bet Formula

The available UFC odds have seen O’Malley go from an underdog to a betting favorite, and the sharp side is definitely with ‘Suga,’ who enters Saturday’s bantamweight title bout with many variables in his favor.

Not only is O’Malley the superior striker with a huge potential of winning by KO/TKO, but he’s also a faster, younger fighter who owns the greater footwork, faints, and cage movement. Suga’s ability to piece up small bantamweights from a distance behind accurate strikes will play dividends versus the one-dimensional wrestler, and with only one aspect of MMA to worry about, O’Malley will retain, and still… Most likely by knockout, thanks to Merab’s horrid head movement. 

UFC Pick: Sean O’Malley ML (-130) [1.3u to win 1u] at BetOnline

Sean O’Malley ML (-130)

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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.